Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Allow me a digression.
I believe in a "Conservation of Energy" version in markets. I do not believe it is (can be) violated over extended periods.
My model gave a strong sell signal on Thursday into Friday. It has been tracking it within -10 to +20 for months accurately. This range was violated on Friday. That is why I posted the recommendation and acted on it. That the market did not sell off is a result of one of two things:
1) Conservation of energy can be violated for periods far longer than I am used to in markets.
2) There is "energy" being "carried away" somehow that I cannot see. (this is a metaphor with the problem that Pauli had in 1929 to explain the apparent non-conservation in beta emissions from the nucleus, which was later understood under a far more complete context than the models at that time.)
Every time this violation occurs, it sends tremors through my thinking as it relates to my model. When I think I have solved it, the model becomes considerably more accurate. I have no idea how or what I am missing, but it is likely that my model is to something like Copernican cosmology, as opposed to the ancient spheres and epicycles that described the movement of the heavens - it is pretty accurate in predicting most of the movement we see, but we know it is ultimately incorrect, and until we had a Newtonian physics, (forget Einsteinian Physics I am light years from that), it was still a mystery when things failed.
So there you have it. I don't know why the markets have not sold off, and if they don't, I may have to downgrade my model's understanding to the level of "spheres withing spheres..."
I believe in a "Conservation of Energy" version in markets. I do not believe it is (can be) violated over extended periods.
My model gave a strong sell signal on Thursday into Friday. It has been tracking it within -10 to +20 for months accurately. This range was violated on Friday. That is why I posted the recommendation and acted on it. That the market did not sell off is a result of one of two things:
1) Conservation of energy can be violated for periods far longer than I am used to in markets.
2) There is "energy" being "carried away" somehow that I cannot see. (this is a metaphor with the problem that Pauli had in 1929 to explain the apparent non-conservation in beta emissions from the nucleus, which was later understood under a far more complete context than the models at that time.)
Every time this violation occurs, it sends tremors through my thinking as it relates to my model. When I think I have solved it, the model becomes considerably more accurate. I have no idea how or what I am missing, but it is likely that my model is to something like Copernican cosmology, as opposed to the ancient spheres and epicycles that described the movement of the heavens - it is pretty accurate in predicting most of the movement we see, but we know it is ultimately incorrect, and until we had a Newtonian physics, (forget Einsteinian Physics I am light years from that), it was still a mystery when things failed.
So there you have it. I don't know why the markets have not sold off, and if they don't, I may have to downgrade my model's understanding to the level of "spheres withing spheres..."
Nitro, maybe you let (sentiment) make you feel short for the market. For example the snow crisis in Chicago in the same time the crisis in Egypt. Maybe you feel anxious? I am guessing
You're missing the Ben Bernank, and you're fighting the fed.
Nitro, all my "models" are saying long, or at least they were into last Friday. My point being that your model may say one thing and my model may say the exact opposite. It doesn't matter what any model says. The best "traders" accept the fact that they can be wrong and their models can be wrong. Don't believe in absolutism Nitro. It has killed many a trader.
Well, the problem is, I trade my model. We have had this discussion before. Your system allows for subjectivity, which is why you think this (or perhaps it is the other way around, you choose systems on purpose that allow for subjectivity).
Every time this happens, I learn something new. This one has me baffled though, and I truly don't know where to even look for ideas. But that is where I was before every other insight I have had!!
I truly believe that my model is correct, and the market is within days of losing 50 handles, at least. Remains to be seen...
Nitro I don't trade fundamentals or CNBC news stories. If I did I would have been short from 800 and higher in the S&P. I trade price action. I think we are due for a 5% pullback here shortly but why not wait for the market to show weakness? Why get short on the uptick?
Look, we "have" been through this before and I am not going to criticize your model. I have no right to do that especially since I don't know what it is. I'm simply saying that absolute beliefs in any form are detrimental to mankind. Whether they be in love, politics, religion or trading. Allow yourself the opportunity to be wrong and often. Do this and I believe you will make leaps and bounds in your progress of perfecting your trading system.