Kudos to MMs

Actually the thread got interesting when he started with the idea of fair value, the generally accepted definition can be found at indexarb. Then he added a second fair value and a third, also he should have simply started a journal in the "journal" section, for some reason his mighty intellect couldn't quite grasp that, the mods really should have moved it at some point. I think Nitro is very intelligent, maybe too intelligent for the mkt, which can get you into trouble. Also, I thought it was strange that he wanted to post here but wouldn't disclose any real information about the model. Carry on.
 
if I am not mistaken Nitro explained what he meant by MMs and FV. MM = liquidity providers, FV - is his own fair value calculations. maybe i misremember what he said but i don't want to go back and look for those definitions.

so he uses his own definitions - not a big deal.
 
For those that care, I have done it. FV is able to explain the variability in SPX. To be fair, what I have come to realize is that the absolute level is almost meaningless, only its relation to its inputs, and those relationships are what is trade-able. Also to be fair, some inputs require prediction on my part, which I do "by hand" at this pont. However, it is not terribly hard to predict this one input, e.g., using a GARCH(1, 1) model for this particular input will probably do at least as well as my guesses.

I wish that I were rich. I would actually write an article on it and explain the model in detail, even giving a website that can be used to track it and the inputs. Believe it or not, it is the intellectual challenge for me that is greatest. However, I live in the real world that requires me to earn a living and provide for those who are incapable of sustaining themselves at this point. So I can't.

I only write this to tell you that it has been a long road, way too many years invested. Would I do it all over again given what I have given up? No.

"Life must be lived forward, but can only be understood backwards." - Soren Kierkegaard
 
For those that are looking to short, tonight may be well timed. I doubt tomorrow survives a green day. In fact, -2% or more seems likely.

S ES 1302.75
 
Quote from nitro:

For those that are looking to short, tonight may be well timed. I doubt tomorrow survives a green day. In fact, -2% or more seems likely.

S ES 1302.75
More...
Why is that?
 
That's a bold call, stop on that?

I mean if you're looking for down 20+ I dont expect to see a 1 point loser or a 1 point winner.
 
Quote from nitro:

For those that are looking to short, tonight may be well timed. I doubt tomorrow survives a green day. In fact, -2% or more seems likely.

S ES 1302.75
More...

I hope so. I bought some SPY puts 2 mins before close. Unfortunately, I complete forgot tomorrow is non-farm today. big oops for me. Don't like to gamble like that normally. We'll see.
 
Quote from stock777:

That's a bold call, stop on that?

I mean if you're looking for down 20+ I dont expect to see a 1 point loser or a 1 point winner.
More...
Time stop. I will look at it at 3:00 PM CT and then again at 3:15 CT tomorrow. Points against me won't stop me out.
 
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