Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Here is one more criticism, that hasn't been pointed out; the wasting of time, if not money. You might eventually get out of the position without a loss or even with a small gain, but you have already spent 3 weeks trying to fight the trend with averaging down.
So that is 3 weeks wasted when you weren't making money. And as the way the market keeps going, it could be another 1-2 weeks before it finally turns down. Now if I understand the strategy well, if the NFV moves close to the real value, you would close out the position. Let's assume we actually have a huge downturn, but depending on the NFV, there is a chance you wouldn't ride it down into big profits, but close it out early in the move.
So in short, the strategy:
1. wastes time when huge 50+ moves are there to be taking advantage of,
2. and it doesn't necesserily stays in the position long enough for big profits once the market moves favorably....
Just a few thoughts for the weekend...
So that is 3 weeks wasted when you weren't making money. And as the way the market keeps going, it could be another 1-2 weeks before it finally turns down. Now if I understand the strategy well, if the NFV moves close to the real value, you would close out the position. Let's assume we actually have a huge downturn, but depending on the NFV, there is a chance you wouldn't ride it down into big profits, but close it out early in the move.
So in short, the strategy:
1. wastes time when huge 50+ moves are there to be taking advantage of,
2. and it doesn't necesserily stays in the position long enough for big profits once the market moves favorably....
Just a few thoughts for the weekend...
I will be publishing an Adjusted NFV, ANFV, along with NFV.
As of Friday, ANFV went out at 1146.82. NFV went out at 1111.57. SPX went out at 1,148.67. When I adjusted the model, I had no idea what the value of ANFV that it would spew out would be. The incredible proximity to SPX is extremely interesting.
Don't be fooled that ANFV and SPX are very close. It could easily diverge, and will probably be considerably more volatile than NFV. In fact, it would have led SPX higher here. Let's see how it goes, all it costs is a little extra screen space. It may also be the "High Frequency" version of NFV that I am looking for.
As of Friday, ANFV went out at 1146.82. NFV went out at 1111.57. SPX went out at 1,148.67. When I adjusted the model, I had no idea what the value of ANFV that it would spew out would be. The incredible proximity to SPX is extremely interesting.
Don't be fooled that ANFV and SPX are very close. It could easily diverge, and will probably be considerably more volatile than NFV. In fact, it would have led SPX higher here. Let's see how it goes, all it costs is a little extra screen space. It may also be the "High Frequency" version of NFV that I am looking for.
The moniker "FV" is reserved for THE model. I have been aware that NFV __may__ need a couple of more spices, but you must allow things time to season.
Gauss said that two data points is enough to guess the function. The problem is that he was dealing with mostly mathematical or physical systems and markets are hardly physics let alone mathematics [although it is amazing how physical analogies can give ideas for market models - NFV etc is basically a Lagrangian function describing "fields". We are trying to get to U = "0". The zero is in quotes, because if we did the accounting taking into consideration human suffering and affects on the planet that current definitions of "wealth creation" doesn't assume, at that point in our evolution would make that "0" truly 0. When human exploitation of each other, other species and the exploitation of the planet in general ends, and GDP etc is growing, well, we will have new problems to deal with, but the human race will probably have reached a point where destruction is no longer a threat by our own hands. I like to call this new era, Fail-Safe].
BTW, I will be making trading decisions based on NFV, not ANFV. If I change, I will let you know.
We are constantly updating models. For example, even our estimates of the proton radius is off (~4%), a value predicted by Quantum Electrodynamics (QED), ___the____ most successful scientific theory in existance:
Just How Small is the Proton?
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=just-how-small-is-the-proton
We are constantly updating models. For example, even our estimates of the proton radius is off (~4%), a value predicted by Quantum Electrodynamics (QED), ___the____ most successful scientific theory in existance:
Just How Small is the Proton?
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=just-how-small-is-the-proton
We haven't lost money (yet) because of the proton radius was off a bit. On the other hand with FV, NFV and ANFV, well, nltro was actually right.
But maybe we could make a strategy that gives entry signals based on the proton's halflife or whatever can be measured and varies in time.... Then we would martingale down...
Quote from Pekelo:
We haven't lost money (yet) because of the proton radius was off a bit. On the other hand with FV, NFV and ANFV, well, nltro was actually right.
But maybe we could make a strategy that gives entry signals based on the proton's halflife or whatever can be measured and varies in time.... Then we would martingale down...
FV, NFV, VNFV, ANFV, AVNFV and SPX will all converge. That is for certain. Where will they converge? Somewhere north of 1300 and the result will be a call to hara-kiri by nitro.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSMrIdUZIMg