Kudos to MMs

Taking a chance once again that NFV will not move too much tomorrow by the time the market opens, and adding a "24" edge unit short at "1133.00" (In parentheses because I am using the DEC contract, but we agreed to give entries in the form of SPX.)

This move is close to outrageous. We are up almost 100 handles in a little over two weeks. The capitalization value of the SPX is about $10T, rounded to make the math easy. This is close to a 10% move. We are supposed to believe that the value of the US market is $1T more (mostly inflation probably) than it was two weeks ago?

The value of the SPX at this point is only to defend against inflation. It has almost no value outside of that against competing asset classes.
 
Quote from nitro:

adding a "24" edge unit short at "1133.00" (In parentheses because I am using the DEC contract, but we agreed to give entries in the form of SPX.)
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And since the only existing short was in Sept contract, it isn't confusing at all. :)

If you really want to count it in SPX, subtract app. 5 pts from the Dec contract and post that number. The Dec high by the way was 32.5 overnight, not 33....

I will do that for ya: short from 1089 and 1128....

P.S.: I would also like to point out the fact, that since the Dec contract is 5 pts below the cash, if you held a short position until December, you would lose 5 pts just by time. On the other hand, if it was a long position, you would gain 5 pts just by the passing of time, because by expiration, they will match...
 
Quote from nitro:

Taking a chance once again that NFV will not move too much tomorrow by the time the market opens, and adding a "24" edge unit short at "1133.00" (In parentheses because I am using the DEC contract, but we agreed to give entries in the form of SPX.)
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Since the ES DEC contract never hit 1133 does that mean the additional unit was not added or what, e.g. was this a limit order?
 
Quote from GTS:

Since the ES DEC contract never hit 1133 does that mean the additional unit was not added or what, e.g. was this a limit order?
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All entries and exits are in SPX terms. It is very easy to calculate where the SPX is when it is not open, especially a day before the futures contract expires. I just looked at the September ES and that is where the SPX is trading. Use bid to sell, use offer to buy.
 
Quote from shortie:

...do you think that it was a red flag when SPX went too quickly from oversold (~-30 points) to overbought (+30 points and more)? could this type of a jump be a warning sign for the future signals?
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This question continued to nag me, and I think I may have not thought through enough with my original response.

NFV is an equilibrium model. That should immediately conjure thoughts of averages, means etc. What if NFV is incomplete in the same sense that describing a distribution with only its mean would be missing quite a bit of the picture? You also need to know at least the other three moments.

The problem is, I have to think about how I would compute the other moments. It may not have helped or telegraphed any more information than we had, but the question deserves deep thought...

Notice that having a mode, median, dispersion, skewness and kurtosis would not affect NFV, but it may affect the chain by widening or contracting them, and by favoring one long or short by having asymmetric chains!
 
Quote from nitro:

All entries and exits are in SPX terms. I just looked at the September ES and that is where the SPX is trading.
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Excuse me, but this was a bullshit answer. If you looked at the Sept contract, you should have seen that the high was 32.5 not 33. Not really a big deal, but the bottomline is that you can not trade the SPX in AH. So maybe you should just stick to RTH trades....
 
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