Quote from shortie:
not bad!
and the likelihood that we have seen THE TOP is...?
As far as I can tell, MMs are long gamma with a long bias, so every time the market sells off, they buy back some deltas and try to get delta neutral, meanwhile collecting gamma profits. Vola is so cheap, why not. The idiot mutual funds have made it infinitely more expensive for themselves for not realizing they have set this regime. So getting a bargain is now close to impossible. They may have well been playing poker with their hands flipped over on the table face up.
I honestly have no idea what could take this market down this month. Next month is a different story, but even then, it would likely be towards the end of the month.
Selling SPX 1170ish is pretty obvious (anticipating 1172 real resistance), but each time it gets to this level, there is a greater chance of a breakout to the upside. You could sell it again if it goes there (this time raise the anticipation closer to 1172), but don't go to that well too many times.
I can barely tell you what is going to happen in the next five minutes (I _might_ have a 5% to 10% edge over even), let alone predict a top on a daily, weekly, monthly, or god forbid a yearly chart.
FWIW, real money goes into NQ/ES on short term "NFV" plays, so if it doesn't work, I eat dog food.
