Kudos to MMs

[nitro]

Still, I don't know where the extra ~100 handles goes between "NFV" and SPX. It may be that if I had that, the above would become clear.

 

[ammo]

i've always guessed it was a bernanke affect

 

[shortie]

my prediction:
eventually nitro will come up with SNFV (super-new FV) that explains everything and is 100 points higher than NFV. the following day the market will crash to somewhere between NFV and FV.

 

[nitro]

 

[nitro]

 

[zdreg]

 

[nitro]

"FV" ~866
"NFV" ~1051

 

[dont]

Quote from nitro:

I am missing something in regards to my "FV" numbers. It is amazing (initially at least), but it appears as if the market re-calibrates (resets ?) itself ("FV") each day, even though today's number may contradict yesterdays! It is as if any notion of "FV" is not carried over from day to day, but is some superposition of both momentum of FV changes, and absolute level. It starts fresh and assumes that what we see _is_ FV. That sort of makes sense if you believe in EMH or some version of it.

Duh, you noticed its random!

 

[nitro]

Quote from dont:

Duh, you noticed its random!

It is random within a band, but definitely not random all of the time. Buying the bottom of the band and selling the top has a definite edge. It is true in trending and sideways markets. There is definitely a band of "FV" but it is not so simple to come up with, and it is 100% dynamic.

For example at this very moment, here there is edge being long if ES is red because "FV" is close to unch'ed.

 

[nitro]

What I don't quite get is these guys that are standing toe to toe with each other. I mean, it could be hell or high water, and there is someone on the bid. Easier when markets are rising since you can lean on mutual funds slightly that must be long.

The only way I can explain that is they are trading against something else, like a long gamma position against an SPX options position, or perhaps against a short stock position, or any number of more complex "baskets", all trying to get alpha. Remember, futures are primarily a hedging mechanism, so they are Brownian motioned to (heat) death.

Still, as the title of this thread suggests, these guys have taken this to a very high art.