Kudos to MMs

There are some interesting cross currents in the markets today. There is no question that the FED raise of the DR has sent shock-waves through the system, expected, telegraphed or not.

Still, the market holds up pretty well, confusingly. I want to wack the shit out of NQ, but prudence holds my hand back. Once burned, twice shy.
 
Quote from nitro:

Well the world market agrees with you as of this writing.

The market is pricing the risk as _just_ this move, not the future tightening curve. IRs just changed and mistake or not, the market reaction is the reality.
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I am not entirely convinced that the buying of the market on Thursday evening/early Friday on expiration Friday was due exactly because the SPX needed to be closed above 1100 to make options positions expire worthless, not for any fundamental reason. Since there are no natural sellers, it was relatively easy to do. On any other random day, I wonder...

I know, I know, I am getting paranoid.
 
The UST withdraw of $200b of money base should have a far bigger effect in the financial system than the discount hike plus it means much more as that program is effectively controlled by the Fed, the action and asset sales are similar, so one can argue some kind of exit already started. Yet markets didnt react to the news, markets are dumb a lot of the time
 
Quote from nitro:

...SPX needed to be closed above 1100 to make options positions expire worthless, not for any fundamental reason. Since there are no ....
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Opened, not closed.
 
Quote from Daal:

The UST withdraw of $200b of money base should have a far bigger effect in the financial system than the discount hike plus it means much more as that program is effectively controlled by the Fed, the action and asset sales are similar, so one can argue some kind of exit already started. Yet markets didnt react to the news, markets are dumb a lot of the time
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That was yesterday's selloff, so it is likely priced in (not in my mind, in the aggregate mind that makes the market)

If I believe in "NFV", this market is overbought and this pullback will last at most a day. I will revisit this at 1:00 CT.
 
Quote from nitro:

That was yesterday's selloff, so it is likely priced in (not in my mind, in the aggregate mind that makes the market)

If I believe in "NFV", this market is overbought and this pullback will last at most a day. I will revisit this at 1:00 CT.
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Imo this market heads lower tomorrow, or perhaps even late today, but too risky to go short today.
 
Spooz red this evening, but I would not get too excited and if you have a profit short, be paranoid to keep it. Probably too risky to stay short as the US morning session approaches, imo.

Reevaluate tomorrow at 1 CT again. If it turns out it is right to sell tonight and stay short into tomorrow, I will probably miss the bulk of it. The risk is that this market is range bound with a strong upside bias, so late entries cause whipsaws on both ends. Very unnatural to trade imo.
 
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