Kudos to MMs

Quote from nitro:

The rest of the world reacted in accord with the information content of the Abu Dubai debt situation. On the other hand, US markets are reacting by buying the dip.

One of the cornerstones of information theory is that low probability events carry more information than the usual. The Abu Dubai event falls under the high information content.

It is possible that US markets are betting that they get bailed out, but imo the reaction of US markets to this event is like that of a race horse on blinders.
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Totally agree. The world caught a chill, America partied.

Sound familiar?

But the desire rally does not seem to be shaping up.
 
Quote from timewarner2:

I fail to see how these" FV" figures are actionable.

Can someone please explain the purpose of these figures.

Thank you
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It is a long term equilibrium. The model does not take into consideration short term liquidity excess which makes it blind to short term "momentum".

I know this will sound like a mysterious statement to you, but I am in the same place with this model that theoretical physicists were before they discovered SuperSymmetry. I have a low energy version of the model, i.e., "FV", but I lack the high energy version.


http://science.jrank.org/pages/3095/Grand-Unified-Theory.html


My model lacks the extra symmetry that would allow for accounting of what we are seeing. I know the ingredients that would make it "supersymmetric" but I don't know what the equation is yet.
 
Ok,

I have new equations. I will continue to post the old number under "FV" and the new number under "NFV". It still does not have all the symmetries that a fully "supersymetric field theory" of markets would have, but I am in no hurry. The one problem with "NFV" is that it is far more agile than "FV" and should be monitored on a minute by minute basis, and there is no way I am going to post once a minute. Still, it gives a rough estimate.

"NFV" ~1100
 
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