Kudos to MMs

[arbs-r-us]

Quote from nitro:

Patience. Will be adding to short soon.

Hmm, maybe your "FV" calculator is flawed? Maybe needs new batteries? Nitro, you are way too smart not to see what's going on here. The capital demand cycle is in its first phase only. You know the routine.

 

[nitro]

Quote from arbs-r-us:

Hmm, maybe your "FV" calculator is flawed? Maybe needs new batteries? Nitro, you are way too smart not to see what's going on here. The capital demand cycle is in its first phase only. You know the routine.

"FV" is nowhere near flawed. Markets have shown repeatedly that they trade in and out of bubbles continously. "FV" gauges what stage of a bubble we are in. It was true to 666 (fear bubble), it was true at 1560, and it is now true at 1040.

I agree. I am aware of what is driving the market higher, and it has nothing to do with fundamentals. It is strictly liquidity driven, perhaps a different way of saying what you said.

I am mostly satisfied with my short entries. The one thing that I need to change is when I take profits on the shorts, and then time the reshort.

In this shorting cycle, I am down just a tad over 10 handles, peanuts for what I am going for.

 

[nitro]

"FV" ~895

 

[Daal]

Quote from nitro:

It is strictly liquidity driven, perhaps a different way of saying what you said.

What do you mean by liquidity?The money supply is barely growing. Bank reserves by definition cant be chasing any goods or assets because they are deposited at the Federal Reserve in NY

 

[nitro]

Quote from Daal:

What do you mean by liquidity?The money supply is barely growing. Bank reserves by definition cant be chasing any goods or assets because they are deposited at the Federal Reserve in NY

Money on sidelines that has to be put in play. It is a funny situation. If real estate improved considerably, a huge portion of money that has no where else to go and is going into the stock market now, would go into real estate. The very thing that people want is bad for the stock market.

 

[nitro]

What is amazing is how surgical institutions have gotten. Their market impact algos are quite good at not driving the market higher too fast.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from nitro:

"FV" is nowhere near flawed.

It isn't flawed, it just completely and utterly USELESS. I admire your stamina of posting it everyday, don't take it too hard, but this is one of the most worthless journals out here with no predicting power or useful information whatsoever. (beside being misstitled and being in the wrong section)

Seriously, what do we gain by knowing your calculation of FV each day? Since the FV can be out of sync for a very extended time and by very much, there is nothing to be gained by knowing it....

 

[nitro]

If you measure SPX in gold, we have gone almost nowhere.

 

[Daal]

Quote from nitro:

Money on sidelines that has to be put in play. It is a funny situation. If real estate improved considerably, a huge portion of money that has no where else to go and is going into the stock market now, would go into real estate. The very thing that people want is bad for the stock market.

I disagree with the 'money on the sidelines' theory, for every buyer(money coming out of the sidelines) there must be a seller(money going to the sidelines). The total money supply is barely growing as the fed is not doing QE aggressively enough and banks are not expanding M1 and M2 by lending out bank reserves

 

[nitro]

Quote from Pekelo:

It isn't flawed, it just completely and utterly USELESS. I admire your stamina of posting it everyday, don't take it too hard, but this is one of the most worthless journals out here with no predicting power or useful information whatsoever. (beside being misstitled and being in the wrong section)

Seriously, what do we gain by knowing your calculation of FV each day? Since the FV can be out of sync for a very extended time and by very much, there is nothing to be gained by knowing it....

Then don't use it.