Kudos to MMs

Quote from nitro:

YW.

Not quantitatively, but the levels are part of my nervous system. I have been watching it for so long that I have a feel now for what is outragous and what is within some norm. If you look at previous posts in this thread, I likened deviations from "FV" to levels of volcanic explosions. Anything +/- 100 is considered well outside norm and warrants "edge". As I stated there, > -300 [below] "FV" would probably be caused by a nuke being detonated over a major city.

What I want to do though is to do seasonal analysis on it. Do certain months have a tendency to drive "FV" more than others. This sort of thing. We already do this for price, now I think it is worth doing for "FV".
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Thx for the response nitro... no, I haven't read the entire thread but have followed it ... is your calculation for FV different in any way from the norm.

thx
B
 
Quote from Bootsie:

Thx for the response nitro... no, I haven't read the entire thread but have followed it ... is your calculation for FV different in any way from the norm.

thx
B
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Yes, my "FV" has nothing to do with either CNBC FV or programtrading.com FV. To distinguish it from those and others, I put it in quotes.

I just can't think of anything better to call it because imo FV perfectly describes it.
 
Gold within a stone throw from $1000. Imo this is significant, but appears to be mostly ignored by analysts.

If I had a "FV" for gold the way I have one for SPX, I am guessing it would show gold overvalued by at least $100.

On the other hand, if I am wrong, then the [equities] market ignoring it is a mistake, imo.
 
Quote from nitro:

Gold within a stone throw from $1000. Imo this is significant, but appears to be mostly ignored by analysts.

If I had a "FV" for gold the way I have one for SPX, I am guessing it would show gold overvalued by at least $100.

On the other hand, if I am wrong, then the [equities] market ignoring it is a mistake, imo.
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I'm long GDX into tomorrow, but very tightly hedged. I see an air pocket underneath that could take it all the way down to 41.50 in a heartbeat. (44.65 close.) That would be roughly equivalent to $30 or $40 on gold.
 
Quote from trefoil:

I'm long GDX into tomorrow, but very tightly hedged. I see an air pocket underneath that could take it all the way down to 41.50 in a heartbeat. (44.65 close.) That would be roughly equivalent to $30 or $40 on gold.
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I'm sorry I don't get it. Most tightly hedged positions don't make money. Are you saying you are just going for a small move?
 
Didn't make money. I was figuring if there was an up move today, it wouldn't be much of one, so yeah, going for at most a small addition to what had already been made.
As it turned out, we're down slightly, so it did what it's designed to do: saved me from selling in a panic at the bottom of the morning volatility. I got a much better price than if I hadn't been hedged.
It's about controlling emotions, at least for me.
 
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