Kudos to MMs

Quote from dont:

If FV is 890 surely you should run your profits and hold?
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Well, sort of. It has to be in the context of the overall market, and your own utility function.

We take things in steps. Step one is to trade with ["FV"] edge and momentum. Stage two is manage risk and try to keep your loses small. Stage three is rinse and repeat above until you get a hold of one. Now your question is what to do when you get a hold of one and is screaming in your direction. That leads to stage five which is usually some sort of short term support/resistance, which in this case it is 982 ish. However, we don't have stage four yet where we are +30, +40 or +50 handles. In this case we are barely + 10 handles.

When we are deep into stage four and poping the champagne bottle, we probably go flat or go very small, and try to trade around this level to decide whether to take this "FV" trade to it's ultimate conclusion - complete mean reversion.

"FV" is not magic. It just says that over weeks to months, markets tend to mean revert to this value. You still have to do lots of timing and more importantly, risk management, in between.
 
Quote from nitro:

Well, sort of. It has to be in the context of the overall market, and your own utility function.

We take things in steps. Step one is to trade with ["FV"] edge and momentum. Stage two is manage risk and try to keep your loses small. Stage three is rinse and repeat above until you get a hold of one. Now your question is what to do when you get a hold of one and is screaming in your direction. That leads to stage five which is usually some sort of short term support/resistance, which in this case it is 982 ish. However, we don't have stage four yet where we are +30, +40 or +50 handles. In this case we are barely + 10 handles.

When we are deep into stage four and poping the champagne bottle, we probably go flat or go very small, and try to trade around this level to decide whether to take this "FV" trade to it's ultimate conclusion - complete mean reversion.

"FV" is not magic. It just says that over weeks to months, markets tend to mean revert to this value. You still have to do lots of timing and more importantly, risk management, in between.
More...

nitro,

thx for the explanation. Just curious, have you created a visual representation of the difference between price and 'fv?' And what are some of the historical extremes you've come across.

thx
b
 
Quote from Bootsie:

nitro,

thx for the explanation. Just curious, have you created a visual representation of the difference between price and 'fv?' And what are some of the historical extremes you've come across.

thx
b
More...
YW.

Not quantitatively, but the levels are part of my nervous system. I have been watching it for so long that I have a feel now for what is outragous and what is within some norm. If you look at previous posts in this thread, I likened deviations from "FV" to levels of volcanic explosions. Anything +/- 100 is considered well outside norm and warrants "edge". As I stated there, > -300 [below] "FV" would probably be caused by a nuke being detonated over a major city.

What I want to do though is to do seasonal analysis on it. Do certain months have a tendency to drive "FV" more than others. This sort of thing. We already do this for price, now I think it is worth doing for "FV".
 
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