Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Hmm, I take it from that you're bearish?
Kind of interesting, as I went long at around the same time as you were posting about doing the same.
I'm long into tomorrow on GDX. Also, from all the stuff I look at, I'm getting indications it might, just might, develop into a multi-day rally across the board.
We're a bit overextended on the downside: Asia's been down six (tonight might make it seven) days in a row, the bears are swearing they have the upper hand here in the US, oil is well down from its recent highs, and of course so too is gold. Perfect time for a bit of punishment to be handed out to them, seems to me.
For me, it will depend on tomorrow morning's action. If it's strong, there's a good chance I might still be long into the weekend. If not, not.
Kind of interesting, as I went long at around the same time as you were posting about doing the same.
I'm long into tomorrow on GDX. Also, from all the stuff I look at, I'm getting indications it might, just might, develop into a multi-day rally across the board.
We're a bit overextended on the downside: Asia's been down six (tonight might make it seven) days in a row, the bears are swearing they have the upper hand here in the US, oil is well down from its recent highs, and of course so too is gold. Perfect time for a bit of punishment to be handed out to them, seems to me.
For me, it will depend on tomorrow morning's action. If it's strong, there's a good chance I might still be long into the weekend. If not, not.
Sorry, I assume people can follow my "colorful" posts. I should be more careful. Here is a brief synopsis of yesterday's comments.
Clearly, we buy strong support. Once in trade, we have to manage that trade and honor what we see. So we are long ES @ ~872 SPX. The trade turns positive and I note that you should let it ride, but that a retest is possible. How much to let it ride? I note that NQ relative strength is one way to "know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em" and that no matter what, don't let a winner turn into a loser. I note that a retest may be dangerous.
Market goes back down and breaks 870 a second time. I sound the alarm and suggest that this is grave market action. That doesn't mean I am short nor bearish, although if we had closed at say 865, I would be bearish for the short term, only because that is the logic the market is forcing on me, not because I can divine price anymore than anyone else can. I just listen.
Nice. I am not a fan of gold, but anything can happen in the short term.
Sure, why not? As long as 872 ish SPX holds, any upside short term move is very possible.
Yeeeeeah, maybe. I never liked the n days in a row argument. That is like you have seen n heads in a row what are the odds of seeing another head? I like this argument very much if that price action takes it away from "FV". Then imo it makes sense because it shows panic. I am amazed how tight SPX has been to "FV". It is rather annoying in fact because that means there are no freebies.
Imo you are thinking too much on the gold trade, and not trading enough what you see. On the SIFs side what you are saying makes sense, but on oil and gold it is suspect. It could work, but imo your analysis is based on "runs" and not on places where others would enter.
As of the time of this writting, SIFs look decent up, and gold is slightly up. However, I would be terrified to take anything naked into the weekend.
"There are old traders on Wall Street, and there are bold traders on Wall Street, but there are no old bold traders on Wall Street."
"FV" ~870.
News: Chain store sales, Jobless claims, Wholesale trade, Nat gas inventories, Elizabeth Duke speaks, Gary Stern speaks.
IRs: 30Yr Bond auction, several announcements. It will be interesting to see how the 30 year auction goes. Imo, as recently noted, the 30Yr bond is terribly overvalued. I think this auction will go at best fair. But that is thinking, not trading. Thinking may be ok here though. If you are a bond trader, this is a real opportunity to trade ZB against ZT, but as of this writing the market is already in on that trade. Even _still_, the 30 yield is way to low in the intermediate to long term, imo.
Oil futures got clobbered again yesterday, but they are rebounding with the rest of the market this morning. I am not convinced it is done going lower, but a slight relief may be in hand.
Gold, ditto with oil, but far more tenous to trade gold on anything but technical (what else can you trade it on?), and I don't see any support near here. 900, maybe.
SIFs: SPX held 872 ish, twice. Good sign for a short term bounce play. Market has become far more interesting. VIX is well above 30 means we get plenty of movement and chances for profit. Note however the extremely tight "FV" to SPX value gives little edge to either side. You are now trading 100% price action, with an eye on 872 ish SPX. Keep an eye on NQ divergences for clues.
News: Chain store sales, Jobless claims, Wholesale trade, Nat gas inventories, Elizabeth Duke speaks, Gary Stern speaks.
IRs: 30Yr Bond auction, several announcements. It will be interesting to see how the 30 year auction goes. Imo, as recently noted, the 30Yr bond is terribly overvalued. I think this auction will go at best fair. But that is thinking, not trading. Thinking may be ok here though. If you are a bond trader, this is a real opportunity to trade ZB against ZT, but as of this writing the market is already in on that trade. Even _still_, the 30 yield is way to low in the intermediate to long term, imo.
Oil futures got clobbered again yesterday, but they are rebounding with the rest of the market this morning. I am not convinced it is done going lower, but a slight relief may be in hand.
Gold, ditto with oil, but far more tenous to trade gold on anything but technical (what else can you trade it on?), and I don't see any support near here. 900, maybe.
SIFs: SPX held 872 ish, twice. Good sign for a short term bounce play. Market has become far more interesting. VIX is well above 30 means we get plenty of movement and chances for profit. Note however the extremely tight "FV" to SPX value gives little edge to either side. You are now trading 100% price action, with an eye on 872 ish SPX. Keep an eye on NQ divergences for clues.
"FV" ~ 860
News: International trade, Import export prices, Consumer sentiment. Tim Geithner speaks.
IRs: nothing
Oil futures getting blasted pre-market. This looks ominous.
Gold futures should follow rest of market.
Be prepared to shift gears. 872 ish SPX will likely be attacked on the open. There is no point in speculating if it will hold again. Simply have a plan. My plan is short on clear break, and if it bounces, to anticipate a further attack and actually short it before the break.
842 - 850 is support, with 842 being where you want to buy. 850 is minor support.
News: International trade, Import export prices, Consumer sentiment. Tim Geithner speaks.
IRs: nothing
Oil futures getting blasted pre-market. This looks ominous.
Gold futures should follow rest of market.
Be prepared to shift gears. 872 ish SPX will likely be attacked on the open. There is no point in speculating if it will hold again. Simply have a plan. My plan is short on clear break, and if it bounces, to anticipate a further attack and actually short it before the break.
842 - 850 is support, with 842 being where you want to buy. 850 is minor support.
"FV" ~865
News: nothing
IRs: 6-month bill auction, several announcements, Treasury budget.
Oil futures seeing green with SIFs pre-market. Not much to add since I can't see a catalyst short term to move this market higher. Imo most of the risk in the short term is lower.
Gold futures have the same template that oil does, although imo has greater risk to downside.
Looks like SIFs dodged a bullet overnight as overseas markets were definitely weak. Not sure what the catalyst is to the rise in the face of that weakness in SIFs. Perhaps Meredith Whitney upgrade of GS and many of the bank stocks, but that seems myopic to me. The market sometimes decides it is Mr. Magoo.
S/R as stated many times. The easy part is the plan around 872 ish SPX. The hard part is what to do short term if the markets decide they want to go higher anticipating earnings.
News: nothing
IRs: 6-month bill auction, several announcements, Treasury budget.
Oil futures seeing green with SIFs pre-market. Not much to add since I can't see a catalyst short term to move this market higher. Imo most of the risk in the short term is lower.
Gold futures have the same template that oil does, although imo has greater risk to downside.
Looks like SIFs dodged a bullet overnight as overseas markets were definitely weak. Not sure what the catalyst is to the rise in the face of that weakness in SIFs. Perhaps Meredith Whitney upgrade of GS and many of the bank stocks, but that seems myopic to me. The market sometimes decides it is Mr. Magoo.
S/R as stated many times. The easy part is the plan around 872 ish SPX. The hard part is what to do short term if the markets decide they want to go higher anticipating earnings.
"FV ~870
News: Goldman store sales, PPI, Retail sales, Redbook, Business inventories.
IRs: 4-week auction.
Oil futures up a little bit pre-market. Imo we hang around $60 +/- $3 for the foreseeable short term.
Gold went higher on a weaker dollar yesterday. Divergence between oil and gold here imo.
SIFs had a strong day yesterday on low volume, but the declines have been on equal or worse volume. There is a gap above between 915ish and 922 ish SPX. If the strength continues, that gap fill would be my target.
News: Goldman store sales, PPI, Retail sales, Redbook, Business inventories.
IRs: 4-week auction.
Oil futures up a little bit pre-market. Imo we hang around $60 +/- $3 for the foreseeable short term.
Gold went higher on a weaker dollar yesterday. Divergence between oil and gold here imo.
SIFs had a strong day yesterday on low volume, but the declines have been on equal or worse volume. There is a gap above between 915ish and 922 ish SPX. If the strength continues, that gap fill would be my target.
Someone asked me how this relates to interest rates directly from the FEDs point of view.
Here is a partial answer, as I understand i:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_rule
"FV" ~880
News: MBA applications, CPI, Empire State Survey, Industrial production, oil inventories, FOMC minutes.
IRs: Several settlements.
Oil futures up strongly with equities. The dog is finally wagging the tail. As stated previously, imo we trade in a range of $60 +/- $3 for foreseeable future.
Gold futures are pretty lively for the first time in a while, as the dollar is getting wacked. Imo setting up for a juicy short. Don't short on upticks, wait for resistance and a downtick.
Other than CPI, imo by far the most important news today and probably this week is the FOMC minutes. We get to see if exit plan was discussed internally, etc. It could be a big market mover.
The gap discussed yesteday will begin to fill on the open. I would selll 920 SPX on a downtick. Last time I sold 920 on a break from below, I sold it on an uptick and it went through 920 straight to 925, hung around there a while, and then it went lower later. Sell with momentum on your side. That may mean you miss the exact entry, but it is much safer. Pay attention to seasonals, i.e., expiration and earnings. Opts ex week is generally bullish.
Final note, VIX is getting super "cheap" and may break support of ~24.50 ish.
News: MBA applications, CPI, Empire State Survey, Industrial production, oil inventories, FOMC minutes.
IRs: Several settlements.
Oil futures up strongly with equities. The dog is finally wagging the tail. As stated previously, imo we trade in a range of $60 +/- $3 for foreseeable future.
Gold futures are pretty lively for the first time in a while, as the dollar is getting wacked. Imo setting up for a juicy short. Don't short on upticks, wait for resistance and a downtick.
Other than CPI, imo by far the most important news today and probably this week is the FOMC minutes. We get to see if exit plan was discussed internally, etc. It could be a big market mover.
The gap discussed yesteday will begin to fill on the open. I would selll 920 SPX on a downtick. Last time I sold 920 on a break from below, I sold it on an uptick and it went through 920 straight to 925, hung around there a while, and then it went lower later. Sell with momentum on your side. That may mean you miss the exact entry, but it is much safer. Pay attention to seasonals, i.e., expiration and earnings. Opts ex week is generally bullish.
Final note, VIX is getting super "cheap" and may break support of ~24.50 ish.