Kudos to MMs

"FV" ~825.

News: Jobless claims, leading indicators, Philly Fed Survey, EIA Nat gas report, FED balance sheet after close.

IRs: No auctions but lots of announcements.

Oil following equities. However, I noticed that open interest is going down. Yesterday could be a short term top for oil. Gold futures have their short term destiny in the hands of the dollar crosses.

S/R hasn't changed as in previous posts. The keys to watch is 878 and particularly 872 SPX.
 
Last time we were at 878 SPX the markets screamed higher and this level was furiously defended.

Where do we close today? Critical imo.
 
You know, if the dollar continues to selloff and gold continues to go higher, soon the US will become the place to borrow and the carry trade will be somewhere else.

Hilarious.
 
This could be the slowest trading day in the history of the world.

"FV" ~825.

News: Zero

IRs: Zero

Oil futures same old. Gold futures continue momentum. When the hammer comes down on gold futures, it is going to be a down $80 day.

S/R same as before. Market defended 878 once again. Next time it gets there, sell it, it won't hold.
 
"FV" ~810.

News: S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence, Investor Confidence.

IRs: Monster two year note auction, $40 billion. In addition, there is short end of the curve, 4-Week, 3-Month and 6-Month auctions.

Oil futures losing value with equities. Gasoline in the state of IL is inches from $3. That is interesting, given that at the peak of oil recently, we were almost 175% higher in oil prices, with gasoline only 50% higher.

N. Korea proves completely unpredictable and is intent on getting the attention of the world. At least I hope that it is what it is doing :confused:

We are near critical levels of 878 and 872. As I mentioned in previous posts, imo if 878 goes this time, sell it. If 872 goes, the next support is 842.
 
"FV" ~820.

News: MBA Purchase applications, ICSC_Goldman store sales, Redbook, Existing Home Sales, Oil Inventories.

IRs: 4-week and 5-Yr note auctions.

Oil futures, while they still seem co-integrated with equities, do have a slightly different feel to them. I would say that if SIFs sell off, you may see them hold their own better than in the last few weeks.

Gold futures, no change in sentiment from previous posts. If it is being used as a hedge against a dollar play, while I agree inflation could easily explode in our face, I just can't buy into the psychological fact that owning some shinny yellow metal means everything is ok. But, that is trade what you think, not what you see.

Since we are closer to the upside of the range, 930 as obvious resistance as 878 is support. But 930 is to 878, as 942 is to 872.

For those that believe that SPX is too far from "FV", don't trade against momentum (honor what you see first, and then what you think). Only short the market on red bars or at resistance, and get out on the high of the same bar as a stop loss. Don't use 1 minute bars. Use at least 5 minute bars. If you can, use options and preferably spreads to limit loss.
 
Wow - you know - I always wonder about these industry people sometimes - who they're screwing and why. bah. They'll kill in the end.
 
Quote from bradleyt:

Wow - you know - I always wonder about these industry people sometimes - who they're screwing and why. bah. They'll kill in the end.
More...

Is this an example of some idiots idea of a bot?
 
"FV" ~875. There is now very little edge to either side as I write this.

News: Durable goods orders, Jobless claims, New home sales, Natural gas inventories, Petroleum status report.

IRs: Several announcements, 7-yr note auction, which should be interesting because it could cannibalize the 10-year auction.

Oil futures treading water, and with SIFs now trading almost at parity with "FV" it could be time to sell premium in the options.

Gold futures, the hammer is coming down soon. There is a saying that perhaps you have heard, "Don't fight the FED." I have an amended rule, "Don't fight the FED, unless the bond market is fighting with you." Yesterday, for the first time in a long time, IR markets are saying that the FED needs to seriously start looking at raising IRs. Usually, the FED lags the bond market by a month or two. But the witting is on the wall.

S/R as stated in previous post.
 
Quote from nitro:

Yesterday, for the first time in a long time, IR markets are saying that the FED needs to seriously start looking at raising IRs. Usually, the FED lags the bond market by a month or two. But the witting is on the wall.
More...

Fed funds futures for Dec 09 is off 0.03% from its all-time high hit on may 21. There is simply NO expectations of tightening of monetary policy anytime soon. This sell-off is likely demanding more from the fiscal authorities for clarity than from the fed
 
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