Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
For SPY at the time I type this using a quick proprietary model of mine:
1. smart long money is currently at 74
2. Smarter long money at 72.
If there is a rally starting at 72, it will aim at 79, and get stuck there.
Above estimates are for 25 trading days starting from most recent high point (~ Feb 06).
On short side, worst-case analysis starting at Feb 06 and counting 38 days, is pointing to a fall to mile 60. You should be able to recognize mile 60, bc of a lot of blood and bodies laying around.
1. smart long money is currently at 74
2. Smarter long money at 72.
If there is a rally starting at 72, it will aim at 79, and get stuck there.
Above estimates are for 25 trading days starting from most recent high point (~ Feb 06).
On short side, worst-case analysis starting at Feb 06 and counting 38 days, is pointing to a fall to mile 60. You should be able to recognize mile 60, bc of a lot of blood and bodies laying around.
Quote from Wayne Gibbous:
I got smacked about the last 5 times I tried long (swing). I just can't trade es these days without a stop, and my freakin stops get hit EVERY time.
"my freakin stops get hit EVERY time."
because that is what math say it will happen to you and anyone else (read the monkey trading problem).
find the rule of the two smooth guys, and place the stop next to the lower back of the youngest of the two guys. The oldest of the two guys is twice the age of the young guy.
Hope it helps.
This just came across my news wire. It is extremely worrisome. If you trade SIFs, I urge you to keep GE news on your screen, or better, GE CDS if you have access to it. Look at the MAR 5 puts. They are .20 bid at almost 200 vol.
"According to a Reuters story a few minutes ago, General Electric's (GE) credit default swaps are approaching 700 basis points this morning. While the credit is still nominally rated AAA by the major agencies, this record level is decidedly more akin to junk.
When it comes to a downgrade, the question is when, not if. The bigger questions, of course, are whether the company is going to need a big equity infusion and if so, how soon and how big.
With the cost of GE credit protection having nearly doubled in recent weeks and coming to a head in recent days, I think fireworks are imminent."
"According to a Reuters story a few minutes ago, General Electric's (GE) credit default swaps are approaching 700 basis points this morning. While the credit is still nominally rated AAA by the major agencies, this record level is decidedly more akin to junk.
When it comes to a downgrade, the question is when, not if. The bigger questions, of course, are whether the company is going to need a big equity infusion and if so, how soon and how big.
With the cost of GE credit protection having nearly doubled in recent weeks and coming to a head in recent days, I think fireworks are imminent."
Nitro:
Drop two rocks from the same height. One at time T1, the second at time T2. T1 is less than T2. Measure the speed at a time T later.
Speed of Rock 1 should be higher than rock 2, as long as rock 1 did not hit the ground yet.
The above should be clear to an intelligent and smart person like you. A friend of mine told me about your intellect, and I show up from time to time to have a helpful look.
Cheers
Drop two rocks from the same height. One at time T1, the second at time T2. T1 is less than T2. Measure the speed at a time T later.
Speed of Rock 1 should be higher than rock 2, as long as rock 1 did not hit the ground yet.
The above should be clear to an intelligent and smart person like you. A friend of mine told me about your intellect, and I show up from time to time to have a helpful look.
Cheers
If you like to eat spreads, buy spx sell ndx. no need for waits and weights.
no, 13-hours. This should end today.
In the meanwhile, you may want to sell a few tents. They should pay you while you think it out.
Disclaimer: I am cash poor, but hopefully knowledge rich. So do not follow my "advice" unless you are rich. If I can help you strike it rich at the expense of the bitch, but without the need for a witch, hit the PM switch. The last sentence applies only to the rich, and those who want to become rich.