Kudos to MMs

Quote from nitro:

I couldn't agree with you more. Imo, this market is now trading well below FV. I am having a hard time sitting on my hands. However, we see this time and again on futures roll and opts expiration.

So, discipline, and sit until tomorrow. Don't gamble here [unles you can take lots of pain, because this is likely to be 30+ handles higher in next few days].

Your 1170 target is very ambitious in the short term.
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Ambitious yes, but a 50 VIX level has this move already priced in. Just looking for a retracement of the October downmove. With the 200 day sitting at 1200 right now, I'd say it is a pretty decent target. Using backspreads in the options market, letting the skew and vol give me the edge in setting up this trade.
 
Quote from straddler:

Ambitious yes, but a 50 VIX level has this move already priced in. Just looking for a retracement of the October downmove. With the 200 day sitting at 1200 right now, I'd say it is a pretty decent target. Using backspreads in the options market, letting the skew and vol give me the edge in setting up this trade.
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Sorry, I disagree with your thesis.
 
Does anyone think that oil is nearing some sort of tradeable bottom? Jeez, I never believed oil at nearly $150, but there it was. So with that caveat...I can't believe oil is going too far below $25. Therefore, buying oil has approximately $8 of downside, and imo $60 of upside. The R/R seems like there is a play, and now you have to find the right position and asset class to make a bet.
 
It seems the front month is being liquidated. If you look a the deferreds, they are at a more "reasonable" level. The 1991 high of 41, which was also the 2004 breakout should be some kind of support. USO seems a good vehicle to me. It has adjusted well on the way down.
 
One thing to note. Now that IRs are zero, the [stock index] futures will be trading at a discount to the spot. That means that traders that use futures as a leading indicator are probably chasing their own tail. Add to that expiration day, and the leading indicator value of ES over cash is even less caustic, today.

Just a few minutes ago, cash rallied and futures lagged.
 
"FV" has collapsed to about 900 again. Unless something changes between now and the close, at the time of this writing, imo to make 13 handles is not worth the risk.
 
Quote from nitro:

Does anyone think that oil is nearing some sort of tradeable bottom? Jeez, I never believed oil at nearly $150, but there it was. So with that caveat...I can't believe oil is going too far below $25. Therefore, buying oil has approximately $8 of downside, and imo $60 of upside. The R/R seems like there is a play, and now you have to find the right position and asset class to make a bet.
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check out SU, looks like it has bottomed. long stock short puts.
 
SIFs slowly beginning to get edge to them again. Imo, 900 is still "FV", and yet we have sold off enough where a long has a reasonable R/R.
 
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