Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
The short against gold kinda sorta worked, but damn if gold hasn't been ornery lately. Mildly profitable, but it almost wasn't worth it to get out of bed to see it.
Your bit about ocean temps was interesting: I actually keep a chart of the change in the rate of change of CO2 averaged over 4 years, which correlates very closely with turns in the global economy. Right now, it shows a mild recession, with a flatline. I think this is not the real thing: that will come in a few years. This one has way too many headlines and noise. The real ones - The Great Depression, the stagflation of the Seventies - sneak up on everyone. Is this something like your ocean temp hypothesis, or are you onto something else entirely?
Your bit about ocean temps was interesting: I actually keep a chart of the change in the rate of change of CO2 averaged over 4 years, which correlates very closely with turns in the global economy. Right now, it shows a mild recession, with a flatline. I think this is not the real thing: that will come in a few years. This one has way too many headlines and noise. The real ones - The Great Depression, the stagflation of the Seventies - sneak up on everyone. Is this something like your ocean temp hypothesis, or are you onto something else entirely?
"FV" ~ 880
News: GDP, Jobless Claims, Corporate profiles, Bernanke speaks, Nat gas inventories.
IRs: 7-Year note auction, several announcements.
Oil futures slightly green with SIFs clear red. A shift is taking place in the cointegration of oil and equities, but it is way too soon to tell. It could be that the lead/lag has changed from nearly perfectly in step, to being a day or so. One thing appears to still be true though, oil seems to lead the equity market.
Gold futures following oil's lead and more inline with the logic of weak/strong dollar.
The FED action yesterday was 100 delta. The statement changed slightly in that they are no longer worried about deflation, or so it would seem. Sometimes the market reacts to these slight changes in language as if it were some great revelation. There was no mention of an exit strategy at all (the coming Beige Book will be really interesting). This does not surprise me, but it does set the conditional probabilities such that once they start to talk about it, imo we are within striking distance of a first rate hike.
The Swiss Franc has stabilized, but imo it was some sort of shot across the bow.
We seem destined to test 878 and probably 872.
News: GDP, Jobless Claims, Corporate profiles, Bernanke speaks, Nat gas inventories.
IRs: 7-Year note auction, several announcements.
Oil futures slightly green with SIFs clear red. A shift is taking place in the cointegration of oil and equities, but it is way too soon to tell. It could be that the lead/lag has changed from nearly perfectly in step, to being a day or so. One thing appears to still be true though, oil seems to lead the equity market.
Gold futures following oil's lead and more inline with the logic of weak/strong dollar.
The FED action yesterday was 100 delta. The statement changed slightly in that they are no longer worried about deflation, or so it would seem. Sometimes the market reacts to these slight changes in language as if it were some great revelation. There was no mention of an exit strategy at all (the coming Beige Book will be really interesting). This does not surprise me, but it does set the conditional probabilities such that once they start to talk about it, imo we are within striking distance of a first rate hike.
The Swiss Franc has stabilized, but imo it was some sort of shot across the bow.
We seem destined to test 878 and probably 872.
" ...Currency analysts are comparing the SNB's strategy to that taken by the Bank of Japan in 2003 and 2004 to weaken the yen.
In those years, the BOJ engaged in massive purchases of the yen's rivals and left its interventions unsterilized, at the same time as it was doing quantitative easing. This increased the level of available liquidity, eventually leading to reflation. ..."
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090624-711057.html
"FV" ~885.
News: Personal income outlays, Consumer sentiment, Cap and Trade legislation vote.
IRs: nothing
Oil futures once again in divergence with SIFs pre-market. As shown above, Cap and Trade legislation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading
which is getting opposition from mainstream media
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124588837560750781.html
gets voted on today. I don't claim to know all the ramifications, but if you put up a chart of the crack spread (anyone know where to get a web chart of the crack spread? )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crack_spread
you will see that it has been under pressure lately in what appears to be a double top formation. Understanding how refining crude into products is worth understading
http://www.equitymaster.com/detail.asp?date=8/11/2003&story=1
If you put up a chart of the typical refinery stock like VLO and compare aganst XLE,
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
you would see the under performance of this sector. It is my contention that this could be due to this market anticipating that Cap and Trade legislation passes today. Therefore, this could be a rumor/news trade in the refinery sector.
Gold futures has been rising again with oil, but this time both have been rising without dollar cooperation. Could this be some strange Cap and Trade correlation?
End of quarter and end of half probably helping SIFs get some wind behind their back. 920 minor resistance, 930 minor resistance, 942 minor resistance, 950 resistance. To downside, 878 and 872 support.
News: Personal income outlays, Consumer sentiment, Cap and Trade legislation vote.
IRs: nothing
Oil futures once again in divergence with SIFs pre-market. As shown above, Cap and Trade legislation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading
which is getting opposition from mainstream media
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124588837560750781.html
gets voted on today. I don't claim to know all the ramifications, but if you put up a chart of the crack spread (anyone know where to get a web chart of the crack spread? )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crack_spread
you will see that it has been under pressure lately in what appears to be a double top formation. Understanding how refining crude into products is worth understading
http://www.equitymaster.com/detail.asp?date=8/11/2003&story=1
If you put up a chart of the typical refinery stock like VLO and compare aganst XLE,
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
you would see the under performance of this sector. It is my contention that this could be due to this market anticipating that Cap and Trade legislation passes today. Therefore, this could be a rumor/news trade in the refinery sector.
Gold futures has been rising again with oil, but this time both have been rising without dollar cooperation. Could this be some strange Cap and Trade correlation?
End of quarter and end of half probably helping SIFs get some wind behind their back. 920 minor resistance, 930 minor resistance, 942 minor resistance, 950 resistance. To downside, 878 and 872 support.
Yes, that is mostly what I mean. If you eat a lot, you fart alot. Waste is a byproduct of consumption of all living things. Since the developed nations of the world use energy that mostly pollutes the oceans and atmosphere (except for France) it is a great way to keep track of growing economies. I would not be surprised if US satellites monitor continents for Co2 and other byproducts of human consumption output.
Sorry this is wrong. At the time I wrote this, the dollar was weaker.
Interestingly, QM has gone red, and gold is still green. Cross currents are making for an illogical (read dangerous trading) market, imo. You have to decide if this is temporary or a paradigm shift. My intuition is that it is temporary, at most a week. In other words, seasonal.
"FV" ~885.
News: Farm prices.
IRs: 3-month and 6-month bill auction, several announcements.
Oil futures again pointing in the same direction as equities. Seems like cap and trade, at least in the short term, not an issue.
Gold futures sleepy, but they do seem reluctant to sell off below $900.
There appear to be lots of head and shoulder patterns in all time frames, an eerie case of fractal statistics. Perhaps this should not be surprising, given the expanding ranges in a sideways market.
S/R as stated many times in previous posts. Mind your seasonals, EOQ, end of half etc.
News: Farm prices.
IRs: 3-month and 6-month bill auction, several announcements.
Oil futures again pointing in the same direction as equities. Seems like cap and trade, at least in the short term, not an issue.
Gold futures sleepy, but they do seem reluctant to sell off below $900.
There appear to be lots of head and shoulder patterns in all time frames, an eerie case of fractal statistics. Perhaps this should not be surprising, given the expanding ranges in a sideways market.
S/R as stated many times in previous posts. Mind your seasonals, EOQ, end of half etc.