Kudos to MMs

[arbs-r-us]

Quote from nitro:

Stock index futures on cloud 9, but oil futures are undervalued by $30.

$1700 SPX tomorrow? Shorts being sodomized.

 

[arbs-r-us]

Just dumped the entire long position.... booya.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from nonlinear5:

So, you are now short 1@1572, 1@1567, 2@1629, and 1@1642. Right?
S&P is at 1650 at the moment, which means that you are 211 points in the red. Do you have a stop in mind?

He's getting killed again. Note how he trails off and says nothing in these moments, but if he were a real trader he'd be life and death these days trying to preserve capital.

 

[arbs-r-us]

Quote from arbs-r-us:

Just dumped the entire long position.... booya.

For you home gamers, that was SPX 1672 (~1670 in ESM3)

 

[nitro]

NKY:IND 14,483.98 -1,143.28 -7.32%

Markets have not even close to start to feel the panic.

10% to 20% down from 1672. My target it s 1520 to 1472 to start.

 

[nitro]

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/NHvzj_kYJ6o?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[arbs-r-us]

Quote from nitro:

NKY:IND 14,483.98 -1,143.28 -7.32%

Markets have not even close to start to feel the panic.

10% to 20% down from 1672. My target it s 1520 to 1472 to start.

Sounds like it's time to reload the long position... But I won't. Bought some AAPL on the channel check info from MS.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Nitro's first series of shorts :

Quote from GTS:

With SPX at 1321
<table border="1"><tr><th>Date</th><th>Action</th><th>Price</th><th>Units</th><th>PnL</th></tr><tr><td>Dec 20, 2011</td><td>Sell to Open SPX</td><td>1229.89</td><td>2</td><td>-184</td></tr><td>Jan 11, 2012</td><td>Sell to Open SPX</td><td>1288.60</td><td>1</td><td>-33</td></tr><td>Jan 25, 2012</td><td>Sell to Open SPX</td><td>1321.20</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr></table>

More recently :

Quote from nonlinear5:

So, you are now short 1@1572, 1@1567, 2@1629, and 1@1642. Right?
S&P is at 1650 at the moment, which means that you are 211 points in the red. Do you have a stop in mind?

So at 1650, his net profit / loss on his continued position ( no stated sell at any point on here ) is :

Short 9 units at a total loss of 1652. Break even of entire trade is SPX hits 1478. Seems even doable on a fantasy level. However, making this trade with any meaningful base capital has to trigger significant margin calls. I don't trade SPX so I can't confirm this, and Nitro has never confirmed how much money he's put in ( I suspect zero ).

Lastly, and perhaps more importantly, the opportunity cost of simply not going long the market lingers. Even if one can meet the margin, and somehow by repeatably adding to your losing position you break even, the risk you took seems large.

 

[arbs-r-us]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

Nitro's first series of shorts :



More recently :



So at 1650, his net profit / loss on his continued position ( no stated sell at any point on here ) is :

Short 9 units at a total loss of 1652. Break even of entire trade is SPX hits 1478. Seems even doable on a fantasy level. However, making this trade with any meaningful base capital has to trigger significant margin calls. I don't trade SPX so I can't confirm this, and Nitro has never confirmed how much money he's put in ( I suspect zero ).

Lastly, and perhaps more importantly, the opportunity cost of simply not going long the market lingers. Even if one can meet the margin, and somehow by repeatably adding to your losing position you break even, the risk you took seems large.

You can add roughly 2000 handles of additional losses from the beginning of the campaign. Don't remember exactly but it was in the 1100 or 1200s

 

[Option_Attack]

Nitro - I hope your leverage is at a safe level. Don't let it happen again! Good luck.

Quote from nitro:

I can only speak for myself. I suspect that the answers are as individual as each of us are.

Let me tell you about me. I return consistantly 30% a year or so trading stocks. I have never had a down year trading stocks. Problem is I have a small account and 30% of a small account is just above poverty level earnings after taxes.

However, in order to break the cycle of year after year of making next to nothing trading equities, I _INSIST_ on trying to make money trading futures because of the leverage. Without exception, _every_ time I have traded futures, I have made money on one or two lots, only to get cocky and increase my size to critically risky levels given my account size, to be followed thereafter by getting torched when the markets change on me. This time I blew out my _entire_ account trading futures and I am forced to get a job.

Did I fail? I will let you decide. But there is a great deal to be learned from the psychology of my "failure." I suspect that many fail in a similar way. They don't "fail" because they can't make money, they "fail" because they try to trade too large for their account, or they fail by trading size an instrument that they are unfamiliar with, or they "fail" because they find out that sitting at home in their pajamas alone gets old, or they "fail" because trading is not intellectually challenging enough, or they "fail "because....The end result is the same, they leave the game.

Notice that the failure is not always money related, but the result is the same and the markets continue to wash, rinse repeat with new trader contestants.

nitro