Kudos to MMs

Quote from kinggyppo:
I was referring to your use of the word " confident" , you should try to quantify that.
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How more quantified can it be? It is 100% code written to a computer that spits out a number. My confidence stems from me seeing it in undulate with the market in realtime, and more often than not, in the absence of exogenous events, having the market consolidate towards it.

I think what you are doing is interesting; let's say your fair value is correct at 1370, you are assuming that the market or its participants will eventually come to the same conclusion. That is the big assumption. This is somewhat similar to what fundamental analysts do, albeit rather poorly.
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I have no idea what you are trying to get at here. I have a model that I believe has predictive value above the risk free rate. Like any other probabilistic system, it is sometimes wrong. What else is new?

Hypothetically, could you explain your rational for this calculation to a savvy investor and also break it down to a child. Carry on and good trading Nitro. By the way has NLTRO left for good, someone needs to keep you humble!:p
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I can explain with 100% certainty and accuracy the system to any "savvy" person. Just like the Newtonian laws of motions, they apply in ideal conditions. As soon as you introduce air resistance etc, you need to introduce pertubative methods that will give you only approximations. Modelers know this, that is why they give you a confidence interval. Perhaps that is what you mean by quantifying "confidence". I don't have that yet. I am moving to a Laplacian-Bayes version of the model soon that will give me this, but I don't have that yet.
 
Nothing to do. 1342 strong attractor. In the absence of [an] exogenous event(s), that is more likely than anything else at this very moment.
 
Again nothing to do. In the absence of exogenous event, good chance of seeing something very close to 1342 today, at which time we have our first decision point.
 
First decision point, SPX at 1342. I cannot blame you if you take 42 handles of profits (at about 60 delta average of that less some theta and vega losses), but imo it is wrong. "FV" at 1418 as I write this, and I see no reason why 1372 is not a reasonable target in the absence of exogenous events. I will reevaluate again at 1350.

Therefore, holding here.
 
FV as of close of Thurs

1463.26

It believes that all that currently ails the market is either priced in (unlikely) or is in the works to be worked out by powers that be.
 
Nothing to do. I admit I get apprehensive on weekends with an unhedged position for obvious reasons. On the other hand, it seems to me that the odds of a melt up due to "good news" (from the markets point of view) is equal if not much greater than the odds of bad news this weekend.

I suspect the market will go higher in the absence of any news today, perhaps closing somewhere around 1350. But there could be some pairing of positions as well. Basically a +/- 5 day is likely imo.
 
The real fear is not that markets will open down today, I just see that as a buying opportunity as the debt-celling will be raised come hell or high water. The real fear is that Moody's and other rating agencies will lower the credit rating of the US. That however, is still probably months away.
 
I am beginning to realize that perhaps this the best thing that can happen. We appear to be at an impasse in government, not just debt-ceilings, but just about anything worth discussing. People have voted in such a way to cause government deadlock. That has not come back to bite them yet.

This may be the first time it happens, with nearly catastrophic implications. We think we are clever, but really all we do is live and learn. Imo, we should vote for a given ideology and allow that government to do its job for four years - so vote republican or democrat at each election cycle in at least two and possibly three of the three branches of government. Then swing completely the other way if they fuck up. So don't be a republican or a democrat, be a tit-for-tat and change your allegiances if need be once every four years. We need term limits everywhere.
 
Nothing to do. A standing bid to buy ES at 1320 in the overnight session is a good idea, but it never went there. Sit tight, buy more on panic.
 
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