Kudlows goldilocks economy.....
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We've been in recession since January. I don't know of a single economist that subscribes to the two negative quarters crap. Jobs have been declining five months in a row. That alone is enough.
Besides, if the gov properly accounted for inflation, 1st quarter GDP would be way in the red. Its a hugely flawed system cause its lagging by definition, and you can massage the data to much, which is exactly why the US Gov loves to use it BTW.
When I say I don't know of a single economist, I am not just referring to those you read about in the media, but personal friends as well (I am a trained economist, and know several of them from grad school days).
Economists working for brokerage firms and banks that you see on CNBC do not count because it is their job to give as rosy a forecast as is plausible to drive business. Economists that do nothing but run consulting firms are the ones to listen to. Try RGE monitor. Constantly ranked among the best in their field by the Economist. They have thousands of separate clients, and employ REAL TIME ANALYSIS. No backward looking bullshit. What do they say? Most definitely in the early phase of a growing recession.
Lets see, just the obvious shit:
-Housing in free fall, no bottom in sight. Check.
-severe credit crunch entering round two. Many banks expected to fail. check.
- declining employment. check.
- retail sales at box stores for consumer items in serious sales decline. Check. Electronics for example.
- auto sales in serious decline. check.
- Walmart and MacDonald's doing well. Check.
The list goes on and on.
And what is looking rosy? Exports. Thank you low dollar. Too bad its only 12% of the economy while the over burdened consumer is 70%.
Hedge, we are in serious crap. Worst I've seen in my 25 years of analyzing this stuff. You obviously have never seen a bear market. We are in one.
Besides, if the gov properly accounted for inflation, 1st quarter GDP would be way in the red. Its a hugely flawed system cause its lagging by definition, and you can massage the data to much, which is exactly why the US Gov loves to use it BTW.
When I say I don't know of a single economist, I am not just referring to those you read about in the media, but personal friends as well (I am a trained economist, and know several of them from grad school days).
Economists working for brokerage firms and banks that you see on CNBC do not count because it is their job to give as rosy a forecast as is plausible to drive business. Economists that do nothing but run consulting firms are the ones to listen to. Try RGE monitor. Constantly ranked among the best in their field by the Economist. They have thousands of separate clients, and employ REAL TIME ANALYSIS. No backward looking bullshit. What do they say? Most definitely in the early phase of a growing recession.
Lets see, just the obvious shit:
-Housing in free fall, no bottom in sight. Check.
-severe credit crunch entering round two. Many banks expected to fail. check.
- declining employment. check.
- retail sales at box stores for consumer items in serious sales decline. Check. Electronics for example.
- auto sales in serious decline. check.
- Walmart and MacDonald's doing well. Check.
The list goes on and on.
And what is looking rosy? Exports. Thank you low dollar. Too bad its only 12% of the economy while the over burdened consumer is 70%.
Hedge, we are in serious crap. Worst I've seen in my 25 years of analyzing this stuff. You obviously have never seen a bear market. We are in one.
Show me 11 consecutive negative GDP quarters and maybe then you'll be credible.
My $600 came in the mail, stimulus is in. I think I will take the family to Applebees this weekend and may even treat myself to a Sirloin and one beer, an import too! I can afford you, thanks Mr Bush.
My $600 came in the mail, stimulus is in. I think I will take the family to Applebees this weekend and may even treat myself to a Sirloin and one beer, an import too! I can afford you, thanks Mr Bush.
Stock market is an expression of hopelessness, anger, frustration at the pump and various other doom and gloom ailments.
Kill your own goose, you will not earn a living out of it.
For the record . . .
The guy that you are referring to who was on CNBC today is a portfolio manager / Vice Chairman of Loomis Sayles by the name of Dan Fuss who co-manages $18 BILLION in fixed-income securities in a Loomis Sayles Bond Fund. Loomis Sayles overseas more than $100 Billion in fixed-income securities.
Fuss has been quoted as saying that we are in the "8th inning" of the credit crisis and has been buying distressed corporate bank debt since the beginning of this month.
He was interviewed by Reuter's back on June 4th by Jennifer Ablan.
I just updated my criteria, I now need 13 consecutive negative quarters of GDP. Until then, we are in a raging bull market. The market just doesn't know it yet 
How low will the Dow have to get before he gets back on the blow?