Kris Kullamagi Breakout Setups

That leaves 4 choices

A. Quantitative Measure

B. Gut feel

C. Stops

D. Coin Flip

fan27 said:
IMO, the holy grail of this style of trading is to be able to quickly identify when breakouts are working and when they are not.
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fan27 said:
IMO, the holy grail of this style of trading is to be able to quickly identify when breakouts are working and when they are not.
More...
The problem is, when breakouts start working and and when they stop working are randomly distributed through time. There is no way to causally predict when either event will occur. Like any method.

Unless you have invented some kind of stochastic variance breakout model which you have proven provides you positive expectancy, give it up buttercup.
 
Timing patterns and volatility are key for daytrading breakouts. Common broad market pivots like 10am, midday reversals, eod squeezes are all extremely important.

Plus paying attention to VIX and which of the 4 mkts are leading vs lagging. And ranges, eg extended or early in breakout run. Weak vertical breakout vs strong 45degree angle. Is it near prior high or whole number resistance.

And we still get stops often. Main thing as always is price action and risk management.
 
panzerman said:
The problem is, when breakouts start working and and when they stop working are randomly distributed through time. There is no way to causally predict when either event will occur. Like any method.

Unless you have invented some kind of stochastic variance breakout model which you have proven provides you positive expectancy, give it up buttercup.
More...
General market conditions, number of setups occurring, etc. could all be used to determine if the market is ripe for breakout trading. Ultimately, position sizing according to when things are working as opposed to when they are not is probably the most simple thing to do.
 
fan27 said:
General market conditions, number of setups occurring, etc. could all be used to determine if the market is ripe for breakout trading. Ultimately, position sizing according to when things are working as opposed to when they are not is probably the most simple thing to do.
More...
Exactly, when you start getting stopped out on a regular basis it's time to scale back.
 
Apoligees for bumping an old thread but does anyone want to speculate why he's gone silent for the last week and a half,no streaming? I know he's just been treading water for the last couple of months during this nasty correction.
 
tomkat22 said:
Apoligees for bumping an old thread but does anyone want to speculate why he's gone silent for the last week and a half,no streaming? I know he's just been treading water for the last couple of months during this nasty correction.
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He went to Italy to pick up his new boat and has been trying to help with refugees from Ukraine (just reporting what I see on his Twitter feed). He was well positioned in commodity plays before the huge runup.
 
On 3/8,it looks like he posted a P and L of 5,630,620 for the day..

fan27 said:
He went to Italy to pick up his new boat and has been trying to help with refugees from Ukraine (just reporting what I see on his Twitter feed). He was well positioned in commodity plays before the huge runup.
More...
 
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