Konviction's 12.2% goal for 2010

Tough month, but at least it was better than January. Trades of AFL and HD did not pan out like I had hoped they would. I made some profit on AFL, but only half, and HD moved against me, as I was un-ware that they had earnings, so i bought a call as a hedge play..it did cover some losses, but I should have probably just closed it. I guess i was hoping hd would post bad numbers and the stock would tank.
Oil was also a lagger. I held on to USO for days, and didn't make the profit I was expecting...same with XOM, even though USO was my largest gainer. DELL was another stock I had went short without knowing they had earnings coming up...again I eff'd up, but at least numbers were bad and dell was down 5% after market...damn good thing too because i didnt have a hedge. It was my 2nd largest gainer of the month.
All-in-all, HD was my only bad trade, and it was within my risk tolerance of 3%, but nothing really gained steam to make my numbers more impressive. I'm still bearish on the market and will continue to be more short than long unless things change.

Month Pnl + 295.24 ( 3.34% on 8823.10 balance)
YTD --> - 349.8 (3.96% on 8823.10 balance)
 
Pnl curve. The blue line slopes up because its based off the ending balance from month to month from closed out trades..open positions aren't calulated.
 

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Summary for March

Down 471.47 (- 5.4%)


Out of 5 trades this month, only one was positive, but it was small. Largest loss was ABFS, others included attempts to day trade rimm and fslr, and a swing trade on REGN turned out at a loss as well. On a positive note, these losses we less than 3% of my account except for ABFS which after commission put me slightly over. Also my trades in: CAT, FCX, WYNN, and FWLT seem to be doing well. I hope this performace continues to the end of month for April so I can perhaps cash out some gains, however I would like to hold these winners for a while. Because of this good performance, my PNL is slightly positive, but barely, and this again will require the stock price of these winners to stay high.
 

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Summary for April 2010

Well its that time again, and the optimistic attitude I had at the

beginning of the month has faded. Between the months of

March and April, the S&P climed about 7.2%, while my trading

should have been able to mimic those returns even to the

slightest bit, instead my account was in the red for both totaling -

8.03% almost a complete opposite!!. I feel like a G.D fool to say

the least, and I'm not sure if I want to continue this journal, or IF

I should for that matter. I have failed to meet the minimum

average goal of 101.72 a month, but managed to do a better job

of losing an average of 3x that. Maybe I'm just being emotional,

and not giving myself enough credit, as we all have draw-downs,

but I need to start seeing some green, and SOON!.

----

But here are

the numbers for anyone who cares.

Down $272.13 (2.9%)
Winning trades = 4

Losing trades = 4

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What kills me is that I was doing good the first week or so, just

grinding out some winners then got slammed for a loss on AKS. It

was pretty much all down-hill from there. Bought some gold, but

it moved against me, so instead of selling the position, I bought

put protection...the position moved against me, so I sold the put

and lost 100.00, then got stopped out near break even on the

stock trade itself. Another thing that really gets under my skin is

that I sold CAT and WYNN way too soon, but my thinking at the

time was, "Well if the market tanks here, I'll at least have some

profits"...well CAT rallied all the way up to 72 from my 64 entry,

and WYNN ran to 93 from my 73.20 entry!! I would have

had a f---ing amazing month, but once I sold my trades, I didn't

get back in because A) I'm not going to chase B) I didnt have an

entry according to my trading style, and c) I felt the market was

going to retrace any day now.




So in a nutshell: I sold my two biggest winning trades way too soon, gold didnt help me, and I made a careless trade on AKS that gave back all the gains from weeks 1 and 2.
 

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Sinse my last update in May, not much has changed. I'm still holding FCX and C due to the drawdown on my account. I did not forget about this journal, but I saw no point in updating it until now. I'm hoping that C and FCX will continue their trends higher. I'd like to see FCX hit 100 by december, and C to hit 5 or higher, but this is nothing more than wishful thinking. Here is what happened sinse my last post above:


3/22/2010
short ABFS @ 28.89
5/7/2010
cover ABFS @ 28.59 ( + 8.00 ) I should have had more patience on this trade, because it eventually hit my target of 23.

2/18/2010 --Short LUV @ 12.35-- 6/16/2010 cover @ 12.31 (-4.48
 

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And here is the chart for LUV. I' not sure if I should, but I might look to take some more trades soon if I can get something that looks good.
 

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Ok, this will probably be my last update before the new year. Here were some trades that were taken after the last update as well. Just more of the same.

Short:

ANDE -205

KFT +21

WAG -217.32

1/2 RIMM + 40


total pnl - 361.32

Looking back on my trades, I took everything as I should have, nothing seemed to be "wrong" in terms of the types of trades I take, so maybe it just wasnt my year. I never let a trade run too far against me and been good at keeping it at 3% risk... I dunno, but I'll be trying to aim for 12% next year.

Now for the good news.

I started this journal/ this year with 9,172.90 , and my net liquidation value is 9,534.39 .. or a gain of 361.49 (+ 3.94% ).

I still hold some positions, and dont plan on selling any just yet.
 
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