Knowing when not to trade.

[qdz2]

thank you for starting the thread for us.

 

[nitro]

Quote from Div Poacher:

I tried trading from 1993 to 1995. I made a little money, but not enough to justify the frustration. It cost $30 to $100 a trade then, even with "discount" Charles Schwab, and it just wasn't practical with the money I had.

So in 1996 I put it in funds, and left it alone.

In 1997, the asian currency scare spooked me. I moved everything into bonds.

In 1999, with interest rates dropping, I sold the bonds for a profit, and used that as a down payment on a house.

In 2002, with I decided to take advantage of the real estate bubble, and cashed out of the house.

I started trading again a few months ago.

NOT trading for several years, and completely avoiding the internet mania, probably is responsible for preserving my capital much better than for many people who got caught up in it.

Errrr,

There _may_ be several minutes during the day when I don't take a trade. Otherwise, the whole day looks good to me.

nitro

 

[iceman1]

Quote from Runningbear:

It just occured to me that the real secret to trading is actually knowing when not to trade. The willpower you need to sit on the sidelines during a dull market is extreme, but those that master it are in my opinion the really great traders.

This thread is dedicated to those with that willpower.

Runningbear

Good thread... and you have denoted something that few are capable of doing for very long... and that's an EDGE one can create for themselves; knowing when to sit with what you got (even just cash). It was something that took me years to learn; and it's paid off. You gotta know when and IF to back it up and whether to use an SUV, Van or 18-wheeler, or just a wheelbarrow. There are many threads on ET about great systems... and finding an EDGE, but seldom do you hear someone assert that PATIENCE is THE greatest edge for a good trader.

After doing this for many years I am completely convinced that those who can wait for the very high probability trade(s) will make steady and good money all year... while some others would be better off playing video games to kill the flames.

Being primarily a position and swing trader conditions one to longer time frames... and typically larger profits in $, and %. Thus some days I am bored silly... and look to music, exercise, research, charting, surfing, emailing and some phone calls to fill the days. Still keep an eye on things... but just don't move my hands if not absolutely necessary.

Same applies to day trading. Better to make one great trade... then assuage one's need for action by envisioning a setup every hour, where there is but an illusion created by boredom... and more likely... impatience!

Iceman

 

[lundy]

I actually like days like today. Lots of whipsaws. Good for pivot trading, bad for indicators.

The kind of days I don't like are the ones that keep going and going in one direction, and never stop, just going slowly up or down..

 

[profitseer]

oh sorry, I didn't realize this was an old thread. I thought it said March 7, 2003. 180 point swing in the Dow. I don't remember March 7, 2002, sounds like it must have been a flat day.

 

[harrytrader]

.

 

[harrytrader]

Just a question of probability: market is coiling 70% of the time. When one understand that it is rational to think taking position only in a narrow window. If opportunity was every second it would be too easy. Now it depends on the time frame. On scalp or micro-swing there are many opportunities in a single day whatever day it is. And a day like this is the most easy day on some system at least on mine since it predicted a bottom 7572 on daily scale and 7556 on hourly scale. Whereas when the market is consolidating (on my model it means following the blue line instead of the green line) the target is less evident but sometimes also forecastable depending on the complexity of the lines.


<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=215530>

You can also remark the 7741 level in orange.

 

[prox]

I only trade when the NQ and ES are both forming nearly identical setups. Divergence between the two will just result in chop.

 

[spreadem]

Its more important that we determine when or when not to trade based on our own mental, and psychological conditions, rather than market conditions.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from spreadem:

Its more important that we determine when or when not to trade based on our own mental, and psychological conditions, rather than market conditions.

1. what's the difference between "mental" and "psychological" conditions...

2. do you really mean "rather than" market conditions, or "in addition to"?

3. Can you explain what you mean by what you state.