I have no opinion of Kingfish to share. I will say that anyone trying to sell an intraday trading "system", i.e. trading approach with <i>defined entry - management - exit points</i> will always (without fail) meet with despair.
That is an absolute fact, because any defined system with rigid rules will only work during certain aspects of market action. Periods of high profitability will be followed by periods of failure, period. The biggest "edge" to successful intraday trading is individual ability to manage trades according to price action thru all market conditions.
System trading is tough enough in swing fashion, let alone intraday. In the case of ES trading, most sessions do not range further than 10pts up or down from the daily pivot. In other words, systems trying to catch a push away from the pivot point (as the core approach) mathematically cannot hit their profit targets more days than not.
Does this sound like a favorable risk/reward scenario to anyone?
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The daily pivot point will be hit (within 0.5pt) roughly 70% of the time between 9:30am ~ 4:!5pm EST. That is easily researched by simply counting the days each month in a year where the pivot is hit within a half-point for the ES or ER. I've done that math since March 2002 and the yearly average is above 65% of the time.
Most of the days where daily pivot points aren't touched are gap & go sessions. If the gap holds open, keep trading with the directional push. Gap closes and looks to reverse, bet on the pivot being touched. Such was exactly the case on Thursday.
Pivot values can be used to build a valid trading approach around, using other chart tools for filter confirmation. On their own, it is a 50/50 push. If any type of plain pivot approach had an edge, the market would have to eliminate it by necessity, or a majority of traders would exploit that edge to the market's demise.
Successful trading can be kept real simple, but it takes more than just the pivot point on a chart to prosper. I myself have spent way more than $7,500 in lost capital = missed opportunity while trying to build a pure pivot method several years ago.
The right information for profitable trading is truly priceless, and I would pay a lot more than $7,500 for what truly works. As for a pure pivot method - system - approach, I personally believe it is impossible to succeed that way over the course of time.
Methodically Speaking
Austin P
That is an absolute fact, because any defined system with rigid rules will only work during certain aspects of market action. Periods of high profitability will be followed by periods of failure, period. The biggest "edge" to successful intraday trading is individual ability to manage trades according to price action thru all market conditions.
System trading is tough enough in swing fashion, let alone intraday. In the case of ES trading, most sessions do not range further than 10pts up or down from the daily pivot. In other words, systems trying to catch a push away from the pivot point (as the core approach) mathematically cannot hit their profit targets more days than not.
Does this sound like a favorable risk/reward scenario to anyone?
**
The daily pivot point will be hit (within 0.5pt) roughly 70% of the time between 9:30am ~ 4:!5pm EST. That is easily researched by simply counting the days each month in a year where the pivot is hit within a half-point for the ES or ER. I've done that math since March 2002 and the yearly average is above 65% of the time.
Most of the days where daily pivot points aren't touched are gap & go sessions. If the gap holds open, keep trading with the directional push. Gap closes and looks to reverse, bet on the pivot being touched. Such was exactly the case on Thursday.
Pivot values can be used to build a valid trading approach around, using other chart tools for filter confirmation. On their own, it is a 50/50 push. If any type of plain pivot approach had an edge, the market would have to eliminate it by necessity, or a majority of traders would exploit that edge to the market's demise.
Successful trading can be kept real simple, but it takes more than just the pivot point on a chart to prosper. I myself have spent way more than $7,500 in lost capital = missed opportunity while trying to build a pure pivot method several years ago.
The right information for profitable trading is truly priceless, and I would pay a lot more than $7,500 for what truly works. As for a pure pivot method - system - approach, I personally believe it is impossible to succeed that way over the course of time.
Methodically Speaking
Austin P
