Quote from Epic:
Ok, I'll agree there, even though Obama strategists pretty much agree that without FL, re-election will be a nightmare.
Let's focus on the other Hispanic votes... The states with the strongest Hispanic influence are in order:
1-New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
2-California (55)
3-Texas (38)
4-Arizona (11)
5-Nevada (6)
6-Florida (doesn't count)
7-Colorado (9)
Texas is lost to Obama regardless. Against Romney, Arizona is lost to Obama too, it already favors the GOP and Romney is very popular there.
Nevada voted Obama last time, but Romney wouldn't really even have to try there because of the large mormon vote, and this is a pretty big issue for Obama. Mormons are gonna vote for Romney like Blacks vote for Obama, and the Mexican Hispanic population geographically corresponds closely with the mormon population.
So amongst the states where Hispanics have enough influence to change the result I think Obama gets California still and New Mexico. With the current environment and considering the crazy mormons all working for Romney, I think Obama loses all the other heavily hispanic states. Forgetting FL, that would make it 60 votes to 64 votes in favor of Romney where Hispanics favoring the Dems make more than a couple points difference.
I just looked it up too and I wasn't aware that there are also about 1 million mormons in Cali too, and most of them are in the south counties where hispanic populations are the largest and were key to Obama winning the state. I don't think it is enough to make the difference, but you can bet that Romney would have a ton of ground support there.
You make some good points but I disagree with your outcomes
Romney has no chance in Ca im
Obama takes new mexico imo
Close but Obama takes Colorado imo.latest polls has Obama up by 2 over Romney .The Hispanic vote is just what he needs and he won that state by 9 in 2008
Nevada is all Obama imo

I think Romney takes Arizona
I think the Mormon issue hurts Romney more then it helps,especially when the super pacs starts attacking it as non christian,a cult,the magic underwear,multiple wives etc
18 % of Republicans ,19 % of independents wont vote for a Mormon in 2012
PRINCETON, NJ -- Though the vast majority of Americans say they would vote for their party's nominee for president in 2012 if that person happens to be a Mormon, 22% say they would not, a figure largely unchanged since 1967.
The question is mainly relevant to the Republican and independent vote in 2012, given that the current Republican front-runner, Mitt Romney, is an active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, commonly known as the Mormon church, and that another Mormon, former Utah Gov. and former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, may enter the race for the GOP nomination as early as next week.
The new Gallup poll, conducted June 9-12, finds nearly 20% of Republicans and independents saying they would not support a Mormon for president. That is slightly lower than the 27% of Democrats saying the same.
The largest differences in opposition to voting for a Mormon for president are by educational level, with adults who have not attended college more resistant than those with some college experience or college graduates. This educational pattern is seen in attitudes about voting for someone from almost all of the specific religious or demographic groups tested in the poll.
There are no significant differences on this question by gender, age, region of the country, or religious preference. Additionally, the views of Americans who attend their place of worship weekly are no different from those of less frequent attenders or non-attenders.
Opposition to Mormon President Among the Most Common Voting Bias
At 22%, Americans' resistance to electing a Mormon president, even one nominated by their own party, is exceeded only by their opposition to electing someone who is either gay or lesbian (32%) or an atheist (49%). By contrast, less than half as many, 10%, say they would not vote for a Hispanic, and fewer than 10% would not vote for a nominee who is Jewish, Baptist, Catholic, female, or black.