KING OF BAIN....Oh My Gawd!

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Epic:

No, I think you misunderstood. Blacks alone were only about 12%. So if he kept all of them, he already has around 12%. Personally I think that is almost exactly offset by the number of people who vote against him simply because he is black.

Also, an honest person knows that a lot of his popularity amongst young voters came from the idea that they were making history, "electing the first black president". There can only ever be one first time for anything, and the excitement always fades after that.

From the 12/16 12 /18 CNN poll that has Obama up by 7

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html



18-34 Obama 60 Romney 36

35-49 Obama 55 Romney 41

50-64 Obama 53 Romney 44





Women

Obama 56 Romney 42

 

[cgroupman]

Quote from Maverick74:

Try this.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000066945

Thanks, and thanks to Epic too for the graph. I was wondering if you know where I could find the Congress' approval ratings to overaly as well. I just have a hunch that Congress was much higher under Truman than Obama? Any ideas Epic, or Maverick? I really did try, can't find those ratings during Trumans era.


c

 

[Epic]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

From the 12/16 12 /18 CNN poll that has Obama up by 7

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html



18-34 Obama 60 Romney 36

35-49 Obama 55 Romney 41

50-64 Obama 53 Romney 44





Women

Obama 56 Romney 42

I realize that is what the current polls say, but keep in mind that Romney has done almost zero national campaigning. He dropped out of the 2008 race pretty quickly. The fact that it is even that close this early in the primaries, should be discouraging to the Dems.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Epic:

I realize that is what the current polls say, but keep in mind that Romney has done almost zero national campaigning. He dropped out of the 2008 race pretty quickly. The fact that it is even that close this early in the primaries, should be discouraging to the Dems.

Romney has been running for President the last 7 or 8 years


The fact that Obama has a 45 % approval rating in the current economic environment and is and has been consistently beating every GOP opponent should be discouraging to the GOP

 

[Epic]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Romney has been running for President the last 7 or 8 years


The fact that Obama has a 45 % approval rating in the current economic environment and is and has been consistently beating every GOP opponent should be discouraging to the GOP

He has been trying to get the nomination, which only means campaigning in the early states. The polls you cite are national polls. It is VERY different.

Consider an important state like Florida that will likely decide the election. Romney has actively campaigned there and according to you the demographics should favor Obama. Large minority population.

Latest polls say the Hispanic vote there is very close with only a 1-2 point margin. And the Women vote is about 48:40 in favor of Obama. According to you, those are Obama's key groups. And Romney hasn't even gotten the nomination or begun a general election campaign yet.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Epic:

He has been trying to get the nomination, which only means campaigning in the early states. The polls you cite are national polls. It is VERY different.

Consider an important state like Florida that will likely decide the election. Romney has actively campaigned there and according to you the demographics should favor Obama. Large minority population.

Latest polls say the Hispanic vote there is very close with only a 1-2 point margin. And the Women vote is about 48:40 in favor of Obama. According to you, those are Obama's key groups. And Romney hasn't even gotten the nomination or begun a general election campaign yet.

Fl is different because their Hispanic population is Cuban who many vote republican.

Cubans are the minority among Hispanics and most of them are in FL.Mexican and Puerto Rican are the largest group of Hispanics in America and they vote democrat

 

[Mercor]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:


The fact that Obama has a 45 % approval rating in the current economic environment and is and has been consistently beating every GOP opponent should be discouraging to the GOP

Obama has a solid base of 40% in any poll.
This is the 40% who wouldn't care if Obama took all their money and put them in labor camps.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Mercor:

Obama has a solid base of 40% in any poll.
This is the 40% who wouldn't care if Obama took all their money and put them in labor camps.

This is why the gop should pick paul imo,he can take some of that 40%

 

[Epic]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Fl is different story because their Hispanic population is Cuban who many vote republican.

Cubans are the minority among Hispanics and most of them are in FL.Mexican and Puerto Rican are the largest group of Hispanics by far and they vote democrat

Ok, I'll agree there, even though Obama strategists pretty much agree that without FL, re-election will be a nightmare.

Let's focus on the other Hispanic votes... The states with the strongest Hispanic influence are in order:

1-New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
2-California (55)
3-Texas (38)
4-Arizona (11)
5-Nevada (6)
6-Florida (doesn't count)
7-Colorado (9)

Texas is lost to Obama regardless. Against Romney, Arizona is lost to Obama too, it already favors the GOP and Romney is very popular there.

Nevada voted Obama last time, but Romney wouldn't really even have to try there because of the large mormon vote, and this is a pretty big issue for Obama. Mormons are gonna vote for Romney like Blacks vote for Obama, and the Mexican Hispanic population geographically corresponds closely with the mormon population.

So amongst the states where Hispanics have enough influence to change the result I think Obama gets California still and New Mexico. With the current environment and considering the crazy mormons all working for Romney, I think Obama loses all the other heavily hispanic states. Forgetting FL, that would make it 60 votes to 64 votes in favor of Romney where Hispanics favoring the Dems make more than a couple points difference.

I just looked it up too and I wasn't aware that there are also about 1 million mormons in Cali too, and most of them are in the south counties where hispanic populations are the largest and were key to Obama winning the state. I don't think it is enough to make the difference, but you can bet that Romney would have a ton of ground support there.

 

[Brass]

Quote from Epic:

...Immediately following the ad, Rush himself goes off on a rant about what garbage those Bain ads are, and how he never thought he'd see the day when a conservative would make such a stupid argument against capitalism...

Quite apart from the issue of capitalism, perhaps Rush missed the point about Romney not being much of a private sector job creator, which is how Romney wishes himself to be characterized. Regardless of whether or not you like blunt force, in-your-face capitalism (robber baron lite?), Romney's hypocrisy is unmistakable. Unless, of course, he can show that his private sector experience resulted in meaningful net job increases across the companies with which his firm had involvement. Otherwise he's fried and tastes like chicken, because one of his key platorms collapses right out from under him. It becomes an outright lie.