exaltedangel09
Guest
I would combine an S&P buy/sell system too.
I mean imagine if you sell a 15pt OTM call when the market is down -10% in 3 days..
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Kim Snider
- Thread starter l3randonf
- Start date
I would combine an S&P buy/sell system too.
I mean imagine if you sell a 15pt OTM call when the market is down -10% in 3 days..
Is l3randonf=Kim Snider= Pen Name?
Quote from l3randonf:
OEX weeklies. usually about 15 points OTM. In the last month or so the premium has not been good and the premium has been about .40
In april/may, the 85% or better probabilities were yielding .70-1.00 in premium for the same OTM spreads.
In the Snider system, you hold spreads till expiry and just keep the premium you received when you opened the spread. If the market moves sharply away from your spread, then you can close for a profit and open another position with the same 85% rule.
So do you think April/May is the market norm or recently? Also, when you say 85% probability of profit are you taking into account that you may experience a drawdown that hits your max loss before it gets back to a profit? You mentioned putting a stop in at 1.50, how are you doing that? Weeklies have wide spreads so you will find your order gets filled at a loss due to a bad quote spike? If you try to put the stop loss order in based on price you will find that your order won't fill like you thought it would and that $1.50 will turn in to 1.75, 2.00 etc.
Quote from Dolemite:
So do you think April/May is the market norm or recently? Also, when you say 85% probability of profit are you taking into account that you may experience a drawdown that hits your max loss before it gets back to a profit? You mentioned putting a stop in at 1.50, how are you doing that? Weeklies have wide spreads so you will find your order gets filled at a loss due to a bad quote spike? If you try to put the stop loss order in based on price you will find that your order won't fill like you thought it would and that $1.50 will turn in to 1.75, 2.00 etc.
Well in my paper trading experience on Trade Monster, I have always put the order in manually and it has always filled at the price I want. Maybe just the way it works in paper trading? I have never used any kind of automatic "stop loss".
It would be virtually impossible for me to get hit with a max loss because the credit spread is to be bought back when the probability of profit reaches 70%. That is a long ways away from even approaching ITM.
However, I don't feel 100% comfortable with this system, as I have taken some losses. But what system doesn't come with losses? Overall, it's been a profit but I feel I don't know enough about options yet to dive in with real money.
Furthermore, I believe you are correct that the market norm is more like it is right now... much lower premium... .40 or .50 cents or so at the most.
Once upon a time there was a clown on Yahoo who claimed that with his superior fundamental analysis skills (giggles from the peanut gallery), he could sell LEAPS that were 30% OTM and that it was free money. And so it was for several years. In 2007 he shifted his attention to slightly beaten down "quality" home builders and financials. Then the GFC hit in full force.Quote from l3randonf:
OEX weeklies. usually about 15 points OTM. In the last month or so the premium has not been good and the premium has been about .40. In april/may, the 85% or better probabilities were yielding .70-1.00 in premium for the same OTM spreads.
In the Snider system, you hold spreads till expiry and just keep the premium you received when you opened the spread. If the market moves sharply away from your spread, then you can close for a profit and open another position with the same 85% rule.
Whether his was a pimply faced teen posting from mommy's basement (no real positions) or a real life AH who knew just enough about options to be dangerous was irrelevant. His posted picks were clobberred and incurred several 100 grand of losses. There is no system that consistently generates a guaranteed income. High probability means that for a good amount of time you'll pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. BUT THEN.... If you want to prove your system here, post your trades in the JOURNALS section. Otherwise, this is just another "I know better" topic.
Quote from spindr0:
Once upon a time there was a clown on Yahoo who claimed that with his superior fundamental analysis skills (giggles from the peanut gallery), he could sell LEAPS that were 30% OTM and that it was free money. And so it was for several years. In 2007 he shifted his attention to slightly beaten down "quality" home builders and financials. Then the GFC hit in full force.
Whether his was a pimply faced teen posting from mommy's basement (no real positions) or a real life AH who knew just enough about options to be dangerous was irrelevant. His posted picks were clobberred and incurred several 100 grand of losses. There is no system that consistently generates a guaranteed income. High probability means that for a good amount of time you'll pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. BUT THEN.... If you want to prove your system here, post your trades in the JOURNALS section. Otherwise, this is just another "I know better" topic.
No. I do not know better.
Quote from l3randonf:
It would be virtually impossible for me to get hit with a max loss because the credit spread is to be bought back when the probability of profit reaches 70%. That is a long ways away from even approaching ITM.
I think you are too cautious with this approach, no need to exit when both legs are OTM. I would exit when the short legs reaches ATM, and not a day later.
Quote from l3randonf:
Does anybody else have any experience using her trading technique? Has anybody been to her seminars?
My friend's parents have had massive success and they have taught me everything. I wanted to see if anyone else has had similar experiences and wanted to see the general thought of her on these boards.
You think people are so stupid not to understand the reason you are posting?