livevol_ophir
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KGC closed at $19.00 up 1.6% yesterday.
<img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TKNARAhjUeI/AAAAAAAAFBY/m-Xa4bWM6Ns/s1600/kgc_summary.gif">
An interesting trade build up in a gold stock... First, let's quickly look at the GLD three month stock chart (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html">in the article</a>).
<img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TKNBWaJBJ5I/AAAAAAAAFBg/ssOpRfOAuqg/s1600/gld_chart.gif">
Basically straight up.
KGC traded over 37,7000 options yesterday on total daily average option volume of just 12,480. The largest trade was 10,400 Nov 17/20 risk reversals, bought puts/sold calls (I think). The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html">in the article</a>).
The Options Tab (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html">in the article</a>) illustrates that the calls are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size), the puts are ambiguous. Looking at the new OI pre-open, I see the put OI has jumped to nearly 20,000, so the puts were opening as well.
The Skew Tab snap (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html">in the article</a>) illustrates the vols by strike by month.
We can see the front three months do have a turn up to the upside, though for a commodity this is actually normal.
Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html">in the article</a>). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30⢠- red vs HV20⢠- blue vs HV180⢠- pink). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30⢠vs. the HV20⢠vol difference.
What's noticeable is that the stock (gold) is ripping. All-time highs are occurring in the commodity almost daily at this point. I find the order flow to be interesting in that it's bearish, long a touch of vol (21 vol purchase in the puts to 17 vol sale in the calls) and a double down. In general the market sentiment feels more bullish and bets on gold no longer being the best investment echo that.
This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.
Details, trades, prices, vols, skews, charts:
http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html
Legal Stuff:
<a href="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/disclaimer_legal.html">http://www.livevolpro.com/help/disclaimer_legal.html</a>
<img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TKNARAhjUeI/AAAAAAAAFBY/m-Xa4bWM6Ns/s1600/kgc_summary.gif">
An interesting trade build up in a gold stock... First, let's quickly look at the GLD three month stock chart (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html">in the article</a>).
<img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TKNBWaJBJ5I/AAAAAAAAFBg/ssOpRfOAuqg/s1600/gld_chart.gif">
Basically straight up.
KGC traded over 37,7000 options yesterday on total daily average option volume of just 12,480. The largest trade was 10,400 Nov 17/20 risk reversals, bought puts/sold calls (I think). The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html">in the article</a>).
The Options Tab (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html">in the article</a>) illustrates that the calls are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size), the puts are ambiguous. Looking at the new OI pre-open, I see the put OI has jumped to nearly 20,000, so the puts were opening as well.
The Skew Tab snap (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html">in the article</a>) illustrates the vols by strike by month.
We can see the front three months do have a turn up to the upside, though for a commodity this is actually normal.
Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html">in the article</a>). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30⢠- red vs HV20⢠- blue vs HV180⢠- pink). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30⢠vs. the HV20⢠vol difference.
What's noticeable is that the stock (gold) is ripping. All-time highs are occurring in the commodity almost daily at this point. I find the order flow to be interesting in that it's bearish, long a touch of vol (21 vol purchase in the puts to 17 vol sale in the calls) and a double down. In general the market sentiment feels more bullish and bets on gold no longer being the best investment echo that.
This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.
Details, trades, prices, vols, skews, charts:
http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/kgc.html
Legal Stuff:
<a href="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/disclaimer_legal.html">http://www.livevolpro.com/help/disclaimer_legal.html</a>