Keynsian economics is dead

Quote from mccd:

The other problem is that because it is indirect (depends on banks to lend, and consumers to borrow rather than government hiring) it doesn't always work, like right now when the USA is in a liquidity trap (when banks won't lend and consumers don't want to borrow, even with low fed funds rate).

What do you think about the EU solution to give money directly to the banks to lend? The liquidity trap may be bypassed this way because banks won't have problems to lend money at a nominal interest rate below inflation rate, assuming of course, there as borrowers around.
 
Quote from Anaconda:

Hey, well with that logic, why don't we just start building homes & condos all over the place, get the people working, start materials moving, service industry developing for the workers, and everything will be great. Except that this nation just went through that...
You're comparing essential public infrastructure to privately held assets bought by people who could not afford them? Try again. Also, you may wish to revisit the timing of intervention as prescribed by Keynesian fiscal policy. It's perfectly fine to criticize various economic theories. Everybody does it. But you should at least have a nodding acquaintance with what you are talking about.
 
Just to take the instance of General Motors

1. The top management have been overpaid for their feeble efforts for far too long. This crisis was obvious from way back in the 70s FGS

The shareholders should demand that the salaries of the top tier drop by 90%, second tier by 80% etc right down to the shop floor for a 10% reduction.

Anyone that doesn't like it can leave and sooner the better. Their loyalty to the company is obviously not enough.

This hard approach however I guess would be bitterly resented and probabably unworkable politically. So the alternative is to go on living in fool's paradise where company employees keep drawing their wages, options etc. until the company is bust.
Maybe a good ole American PR campaign to tell them ALL about how lucky they are to be living the American Dream !!!!!!!!!
lol
 
Quote from mccd:

I think that people here have a somewhat backwards understanding of Keynes.

The only thing that has died recently is Friedman's monetarism which, despite what some of the self-styled libertarians may assume, calls for the extreme expansion of the money supply right now (Friedman thought that aggressive easing would have avoided the great depression). Bernanke has followed his and Shwartz's advice and it has clearly failed.

Keynes saw only a minor role in monetary easing (hence why the monetarists disagreed with him) and instead argued in favor of fiscal stimulus. History has proven that fiscal stmulus is the best way of fighting a depression. Germany and Japan pursued fiscal stimulus in the early thirties and came out of the depression far earlier than anyone else, and strong enough to almost take over the world. Japan in the 90s pursued monetarist policies (attempt to reinflate the money supply with negative real interest rates) and failed. The USA is now in the same position. Keynes foresaw this failure and called it the liquidity trap.

So, despite what Murray Rothbard or whoever you read might try to tell you, Keynesians are not into printing money - they are into deficit spending - two very different things.

There are basically 3 ways to approach the current problem:

1) Monetarist - print money like there is no tomorrow, re-inflate asset values as quickly as possible

2) Keynesian- deficit spending to raise employment and sustain aggregate demand

3) Austrian - liquidate bad debts, allow insolvent institutions to fail, reduce the overall debt-load and start over from a sound base.

While the Austrian solution sounds good in theory, the danger is that once you willingly start a deflationary spiral, it is very hard to stop, and no one knows where it will end. Starting from a sound foundation might not seem so appealing when that foundation looks like something out of Mad Max.

1.) Moneterists - A re-inflation of an asset bubble will only happen if the deflation is a result of an asset bubble in the first place. That was not the case during the 20's. The stock market got a bit overvalued, but the crash did not cause the deflation.

Around the time of the crash the central bank was involved in a process called "sterilization". That is, it was not allowing the gold standard to function the way it should. This caused a very pronounced tightening of the money supply - one that the modest rate cuts the Fed employed after the crash couldn't overcome.

An overly tight money supply was not the problem in the last few years. Indeed, a very large money supply (expressed in loose lending) was the problem.

Don't blame this on Schwartz. She publicly criticized Bernanke in the WSJ for "fighting the last war".

2.) Keynes - The state creates demand but the state doesn't produce anything. Since a fundamental law of economics is that, in the long run, one can only consume as much as one produces, this model doesn't work. What it does to is saddle the economy with an enormous amount of debt which is merely another way of saying "raises taxes on future production".

Keynes' deficit spending also crowds out private investment, making the task of repaying the loans virtually impossible. Keynsian economic shenanigans extended the Great Depression and buried the economies of countries that employ his machinations.

3.) Austrian - isn't it interesting that every single depression before the Great Depression (which was the first time Keynes' central planning was tried) righted itself without that horrid deflationary death spiral you're talking about.

The liquidity trap is a scare tactic. Nothing more. Assets must fall to a price where equilibrium is reached. Keynes merely argues that government should employ central planning to force an outcome it, in reality, has no power to force.

Hubris.
 
3.) Austrian - isn't it interesting that every single depression before the Great Depression (which was the first time Keynes' central planning was tried) righted itself without that horrid deflationary death spiral you're talking about. [/B]


What's you sample size to claim statistical significance of the result?

1,2 or just 3 at max occasions?

Are you willing to pay for your lack of statistical significance? Philosophy is nice and good until the bill arrives.
 
Quote from Humpy:

What an eye opener from Rogers !!

And who is responsible ?

My guess is that THEY will get away with this legalised robbery by using the flocking technique. That is that there are so many guilty parties there wouldn't be enough space in 10 times the amount of jails to keep them in and they know it.
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

You're comparing essential public infrastructure to privately held assets bought by people who could not afford them? Try again. Also, you may wish to revisit the timing of intervention as prescribed by Keynesian fiscal policy. It's perfectly fine to criticize various economic theories. Everybody does it. But you should at least have a nodding acquaintance with what you are talking about.

Considering that the government borrows from the same entity which also is the backbone of private lending, I think it's a great comparison. Especially since now, those private debts, are being backed by taxpayer money. It's pretty much the same thing.

Have you looked at the currency you use lately? It's a debt instrument.

Better yet, find one example where this Keynesian theory has ever worked out. I'll even give you hint where you can attempt to form an argument: defense/prison complex.
On the flipside, Austrian School of economics has been preaching the perils of the fiat/fractional reserve system for centuries. It is unfolding as we speak.
 
Quote from intradaybill:

What's you sample size to claim statistical significance of the result?

1,2 or just 3 at max occasions?

Actually, depressions happened every decade or so.

Why? How large is your sample size for the Keynsian model and show me ONE incident where the outcome of central planning was better than the outcome of the market righting itself.

Remember to include
Japan
France
The Great Depression
The 1970's
Germany
England (70's)

In your sample.
 
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