Key Week for EURUSD Traders

Paul,

In general you are absolutely correct. Many times, particularly in the Asian session, you can watch the bid (or ask) get smacked up the ladder. It just gobbles everything up. It can be helpful on short term trades and to get a handle on support or resistance levels though.

The fact that someone is willing to gobble up 7,000-14,000 or so contracts at a particular time just makes me a little more alert sometimes. :)
 
Quote from VisionTrader:

Paul,

In general you are absolutely correct. Many times, particularly in the Asian session, you can watch the bid (or ask) get smacked up the ladder. It just gobbles everything up. It can be helpful on short term trades and to get a handle on support or resistance levels though.

The fact that someone is willing to gobble up 7,000-14,000 or so contracts at a particular time just makes me a little more alert sometimes. :)
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am watching the commitment of traders report which has interesting info (like the distribution of the open interest)

Sherlock
 

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Quote from VisionTrader:



The fact that someone is willing to gobble up 7,000-14,000 or so contracts at a particular time just makes me a little more alert sometimes. :)
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Vision,

As you read this, please know I'm not trying to beat a dead horse or be disparaging, but simply to have an intellectual discussion about markets and therefore I mean no insult.

Couldn't you also say that the fact that someone is willing to be the seller of those same 7,000 - 14,000 at that price level is just as significant? (Without them, there would be no trade at that level, right?)

My point is that you seem to be trying to assign some type of directional bias or meaning to the fact that those two price points were active in terms of contract volume.

When you said "I wonder if those were buy or sell orders" my point was exactly that they were both.

My contention is that either you are forgetting the mechanics of the market or that you are biased into seeing what you want to see.

It is the price movement AFTER the big volume/stalled prices that is indicative of a higher probability of a directional move - not just the fact that a large amount of people (or big orders) nullified each other on both the buy and sell side of the equation at a couple of price levels.

If anything, on the snapshot that you had of the matrix, it showed indecision or market stalemate, not bias IMO.

Respectfully,

Paul
 
since I do not have additional access to orderflow - volume info from other sources quoting the spot - foward market

I sometimes see size done in EUR futures etc that
can show where the short term trend might have
to reverse or slow down to congest.

-It is the price movement AFTER the big volume/stalled prices that is indicative of a higher probability of a directional move - not just the fact that a large amount of people (or big orders) nullified each other on both the buy and sell side of the equation at a couple of price levels-
 
Yes. I see both of your points and in general I agree. I think I may have got us off on the wrong track with this discussion. It was not my intent and this is not part of overall trading plan. If this starts occurring a key s/r level, I just take notice.


Good points both of you.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

I agree with vision's assessment, overall. However, you won't find me adding short positions on the EUR at this level unless we see a major and conclusive break of the bottom @ 1.1867. Yes, rates are going up (supposedly) - but my spidey sense tells me this is going to be coming to a close very shortly as rates reach "neutral" levels in the neighborhood of 4.00/4.25 percent.

Yes, dollars are going to be repatriated - but this is still a limited number, and unfortunately in FOREX, a number that large is still a stone's drop in a pond.

What I still do not like (and I am traditionally a dollar bull) is the following:

1. Massive unbalances in trade and budget (the ol' twin defs)
2. Greenie leaving in January
3. Oil and the US's dependency
4. Fallout from the last several storms
5. Various geopolitical landscapes with Iran

I tell you, as sure as the sun will rise, that once people think rates are done rising, the dollar will be done rising. If I am wrong on that, I am wrong. But that is the evidence before me.

Cheers,

Ivan
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the master of analysis points out "once people think rates are done rising, the dollar will be done rising."

How can one argue with that?

A good question, though, at this point may be, how far will it go?

If the current situation remains, cannot the Fed simply continue jacking up the interest rate?

For another year? another two years? three?

will we return to the days of 15% interest?

If so, will not the USD simply out-muscle all other currencies that have not raised interest rates to keep up?

If that happens, and if the euro zone continues to turn in poor numbers, is it not feasible for EUR/USD to move to under 0.8000?
 
Your sarcasm aside (re master comment), you may think this is obvious, but so many people here have forgotten it time and time again. I've been harping about it forever, and you know I have. I'm just trying to help.

I believe Al will bump min 1, most likely 2 and then he'll be off to retirement, having done what he said he wanted to: "Return fed rate to neutral at 4.25%". Then, you'll see a pause. Remember to look at what the market prices in. If, after the next bump, the market prices in one additional rise, then that is it. The dollar will be at it's essental equinox.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

The dollar will be at it's essental equinox.
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"its essential equinox," Ivan... "its essential equinox."

one thing you didn't mention: This market is getting its signals from Janet Yellen.

she's the butch masculine bitch who caused the stampede out of the USD last year to 1.3665 against the euro.

You're trading Janet's words.

skz

<img src=http://finance.news.bg/photos/people/america/Janet%20Yellen.JPG>
"the forex market does what I say!" - Janet Yellen

http://news.google.com/news?lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=Janet Yellen&sa=N&tab=wn
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Did you not like my equinox quotable? Is that why you mentioned it like you did?
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yo, Ivan, don't get me wrong.

I meant it when I said you are a master analyzer.

Master speller, though, can be debated. :D

What's your take on the coming MCF (massive credit failure) scenario?
 
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