Key reversal

Quote from brokerboy:

i would wager a guess ammo has been around the block a little more than you lojanica but the market will make the final decision.
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Seems to me that lojanica already cashed his straddle at a profit and you are still holding a short that can at best be barely profitable at today's prices.

My point is you can have all the economic theories in the world ( and some of yours are quite extravagant lately ), but without a clear trading plan what is the point ? Your short might even make you a decent profit eventually, but remember, there are opportunity costs to every trade.

TSX is down 8%, most of which I banked on the way up. I'm thinking at best TSX might shed another 5-7%, but only if US markets drop below 1550 which may not happen. Correct strategy I think is still flat and let things settle down. I'd like to be long again this fall. Remember, its a fairly large fund with conservative goals so I'm not expecting large profits.
 
Quote from Nine_Ender:

Seems to me that lojanica already cashed his straddle at a profit and you are still holding a short that can at best be barely profitable at today's prices.
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I've been pretty up front with my trades posted on ET.

I was long CS for a year---doubled and now out.

Short at the key reversal entry was 1668ish now flat. Also closed the straddle. Both of these were great trades.

I'm long GRPN still holding.

I have other trades but those are the few I've posted on ET.


But I am not here to argue. I am just having polite FREE conversation. Many with this type of track record would charge an arm and a leg.

I won't tell my trade from today because I am still in it.

BTW BB are you an eterna short? I can understand a metals short, or a short on a miner like BHP or some other commodities based firm or short the AUD or short the YEN but short US equities? That's so 2008.

Even if we drop further this summer we're not gonna see a repeat of 2008/2009 the FED keeps telling you so and they have a big wallet.

As Marty Zweig said so well DON'T FIGHT THE FED
 
its not about the time put in ,he gave his read on his system,i gave mine,heres a third, a hns setup to 1634,head to neck is 118 pts,following that line, 1634 would hit around jul 19 ,exp,there are many more, try to recognize as many as possible and then deduce as they fail to materialize,narrowing down the possible recognizable scenarios
 

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Thanks. No one gets it perfect. For the record I'm flat on options and futures. Awaiting a better set-up either long or short. I may scalp or do a half-day swing trade.

I have a few individual equity trades but other wise long cash for now.

Thanks for the charts
 
i don't want to day trade right now. we both know the positions not hurting me because if it was i would be out. i go to the gym, i am enjoying the weather, i got a thin pretty girl with the deluxe features, and i am not stressed. i hate to say it but day trading all the time can make you miserable. i am not telling you to be short the market i am just giving my opinion longer term.

if i was day trading i would not be trading on the logic i am talking about right now. i would be looking at the market in very short time frames. this thread is called key reversal though so my points are topical. i never called s&p 700 but i would not be surprised to see s&p 1400.

also are you stating i was wrong about triple witching days or window dressing?



Quote from Nine_Ender:

Seems to me that lojanica already cashed his straddle at a profit and you are still holding a short that can at best be barely profitable at today's prices.

My point is you can have all the economic theories in the world ( and some of yours are quite extravagant lately ), but without a clear trading plan what is the point ? Your short might even make you a decent profit eventually, but remember, there are opportunity costs to every trade.

TSX is down 8%, most of which I banked on the way up. I'm thinking at best TSX might shed another 5-7%, but only if US markets drop below 1550 which may not happen. Correct strategy I think is still flat and let things settle down. I'd like to be long again this fall. Remember, its a fairly large fund with conservative goals so I'm not expecting large profits.
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Quote from Lojanica:

I've been pretty up front with my trades posted on ET.
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I have no issue with your trades, I was addressing "broker boy" and identifying your trade as a profitable one with a clear exit. You might note that broker boy criticized your exit because he felt it was low risk to hold longer, which in fact wasn't the case as was confirmed earlier today. I have significant experience trading short term options but I'm not actively trading them this year.

I see these "long term" short callers ( holders ? ) on SPX/Dow all the time on here ( many posters ), and they almost never have a realistic plan moving forward. I was giving him a full chance to differentiate himself from the others. Saying the trade is too small to matter to him doesn't really answer the question, but so be it.

The importance of the plan even for longer holds is illustrated by the fact that this recent corrective phase could be ( for example ):

a. The start of a multi-year bear market as Broker Boy has
suggested.
b. The start of a sizeable, short term 10-15% correction.
c. A profit taking summer phase ( 5%-10% ) before a rally
later this year.

Obviously, an exit strategy is required if "c" is in play, and even "b" can be problematic to shorts if the bounce from the bottom is sharp.

These aspects are important to me because I think only "b" and "c" are likely, and I do worry that waiting for "b" will be a problem for me if "c" occurs instead on US markets. And Canada vs US markets is an issue again as it was in 2011/2012.

Today's market action is suggesting "c" but it could easily be a head fake. It will be most profitable for me if "b" occurs in a very defined, short term manner, but I know markets aren't there to fulfill my book.
 
my answer was really very simple and i gave it to you. its easy to come back at me once the s&p moved 50 points in my face in a few days. why don't you just show me the respect that i am not a pussy and i called my top area. i told you its small i am not a fool looking to get crushed.

do you love Lojanica or something? haha i am teasing of course but i never attacked him. the thread is called key reversal and we had a polite conversation i felt.

whats so good that the economy is going to be good? you know at some point that question will be answered by the markets.

Quote from Nine_Ender:

I have no issue with your trades, I was addressing "broker boy" and identifying your trade as a profitable one with a clear exit. You might note that broker boy criticized your exit because he felt it was low risk to hold longer, which in fact wasn't the case as was confirmed earlier today. I have significant experience trading short term options but I'm not actively trading them this year.

I see these "long term" short callers ( holders ? ) on SPX/Dow all the time on here ( many posters ), and they almost never have a realistic plan moving forward. I was giving him a full chance to differentiate himself from the others. Saying the trade is too small to matter to him doesn't really answer the question, but so be it.

The importance of the plan even for longer holds is illustrated by the fact that this recent corrective phase could be ( for example ):

a. The start of a multi-year bear market as Broker Boy has
suggested.
b. The start of a sizeable, short term 10-15% correction.
c. A profit taking summer phase ( 5%-10% ) before a rally
later this year.

Obviously, an exit strategy is required if "c" is in play, and even "b" can be problematic to shorts if the bounce from the bottom is sharp.

These aspects are important to me because I think only "b" and "c" are likely, and I do worry that waiting for "b" will be a problem for me if "c" occurs instead on US markets. And Canada vs US markets is an issue again as it was in 2011/2012.

Today's market action is suggesting "c" but it could easily be a head fake. It will be most profitable for me if "b" occurs in a very defined, short term manner, but I know markets aren't there to fulfill my book.
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Ammo's call was correct. We are testing the 50d ma from below. Gap at 1633. End of month money flows. Pre-holiday. My cycle charts are just scenarios that "could" happen.

Ammo's scenario is more plausible today.

Break 50d ma to the upside fill gap from June 20th and then retest low of Junes move. After that we'll see.
 
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