Key reversal

what is the conspiracy? markets go up and markets go down? i don't see good jobs or salary growth why is that so wild? you can tell me there are new shopping centers being built in my town but they are not high paying jobs if you work in a mall. also in the last 4 years companies PE's grew because of low interest, lesser salaries paid to individuals, and less workers needed. if 70% of consumption is the consumer they don't have the money to support the pipe-dream.

my position is small so i can let it trade my first step into it was near the end of last year but 75% was done above today's trading prices. if you look on the threads i kind of came back on here writing more and adding to my position beginning of may but i am sitting in mostly cash. if the market can run up 30% why can't it drop 30%? why is that so crazy? also yes i am waiting for a major correction but i have no idea when or if that happens. i do have the cash to buy and hold if it happens. that's my plan and if i had to be totally honest i shorted in the beginning out of boredom of waiting for a bigger correction. i would take a smaller profit too but i don't see the US or world economy as good as you see it. the reason i can let it trade is because its manageable. if i was playing with margin and big leverage i would not be relaxed looking at the bigger picture.

i don't know your age or how long you been around the markets but nothing i say is crazy. its honest and its things i have seen happen before in my life. if you believe financial companies do the right things for people that's your opinion but i don't see it that way.


Quote from Nine_Ender:

You seem forever wrapped up in conspiracy theories and calling for massive drops in US markets. You are not alone on this site doing that.

Try this for a change. You said you shorted the S&P, but when it went against you for a while, the claim was it was a small position, and that markets are "crazy". Fine, but this is a trading section. So what is most important to us is not that you are short, or that you anticipate massive financial bloodbath in the US at some point in the future. The important item is your exit strategy on this trade. What is your plan ? Do you even have a plan ?
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you might be right.

i know if the fed wants the market to move up they will need to buy more because after awhile you run out of juice. also the only crazy conspiracy thing i said on elitetrader is its in obama's best interest for markets go down now. i say that because republicans want to wait for the next election but if the markets drop 30% they are forced to do business. if the markets stay high obama can't do any of this social reform or job creation programs he wants to do so he walks away a failure. i am not saying it will happen but there is truth in that statement.


Quote from Lojanica:

True. One of the things that confounded so many traders was "Why is the market climbing when we are in a recession?"

The world's CB's coordinated an expansion of credit to counteract the deflationary forces at hand.

Now with interest rates bottomed out (end of a 30 year bond bull market) and the commodities market blowing off their bubbly excesses the only safe haven is gonna be cash and equities. So sure it doesn't make sense but I'd say the dips should continue to be bought but not the shallow dips the big fear induced routs like over the last 30 days. Once everyone realizes the sun will rise tomorrow and that they are gonna lose money in bonds and that cash has a negative expectancy due to inflation then guess what the equities market will take off.

Maybe, maybe not and that is what makes a market.

Does anyone really think the FED is gonna pull the plug? Tapering means that less stimulus not no stimulus.

Look at the 70's for jagged markets.

This could go on for years with sell-offs in the 10-20% range and then refilling, hitting the last high or just short or a little higher then retracing. Understanding the macro helps delineate a decent strategy then understanding the micro aids in positioning
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Quote from Lojanica:

Time and price seem to be setting up for a buy next week. Tuesday morning or Wednesday afternoon. Just an educated guess
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i am guessing now into end of month then 1st of month 401k money then resume the selloff
 

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Quote from ammo:

i am guessing now into end of month then 1st of month 401k money then resume the selloff
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Thanks for the chart.

My cycle generator says low for the week of July 4th and with it falling on a Thursday that would put the temporary low on the 2nd or 3rd or 5th. Then a lower low to be made in Oct or Nov.Followed by a fierce rally into 2014 when the world doesn't come unraveled
 
Shorts are gonna get cooked if we don't turn around soon cause the uptrend has not been broken. Stick save at support or? This would be a bit unusual for such a sharp reversal but who knows really? I have said the market's gonna go higher but to turn around this quickly. Sheesh.

We are gonna get some weird sideways topping action over the summer most likely unless tomorrow sells off.
 
i would wager a guess ammo has been around the block a little more than you lojanica but the market will make the final decision. i don't think you are looking at the window dressing funds do on last 4th and 3rd business day of each month. i would say the same for what you saw on the triple witching day last friday too.

it looks like good news is bad news with today's gdp number so lojanica you might be right too. i am more on ammo's thinking though. i think at the end of this scientist experiment we will find out if the government can spend its way into a good economy not by congress but by the fed. i would love to hear the bond value loss in what the fed is holding but that will never be talked about. it will be down a trillion at some point i would bet. we have learned in 4 years that the money does not trickle down maybe 5 years is the magic number.

Quote from Lojanica:

Time and price seem to be setting up for a buy next week. Tuesday morning or Wednesday afternoon. Just an educated guess
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Quote from ammo:

i am guessing now into end of month then 1st of month 401k money then resume the selloff
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