Key reversal

Quote from achilles28:

I had a talk with an investor tonight. Not a small money guy.

I said this - at the end, it comes down to the FED. Maybe we go sideways for a few months. Maybe we go down a hundred points. At the end of the day, the FED will monetize with another round, and that's that.

Technical analysis confirmed the downtrend. I don't expect it to have legs.

Peace
More...
Agreed.

Notice Asia's fairly robust rout and yet domestic equity market's are "stable."

Why? Best of the worst. FED as backstop. Everyone "knows" the FED has their back. Having said that it's summer, we had a good run over the past 6 month, 12 month, and 4 year timeframes.

So----- I am in agreement. But I think volatility will kick up as the spillover from Asia, Europe, and our continued dull economy continues.

Add in the fact that interest rates are turning around, Wall Street's appetite for paper is slowing, corporate buybacks are slowing, and the FED is slowing Open Market Operations and you have the recipe for a sideways market.

1480-1670 with possible moves to 1450-1715 for the rest of the year.

So daytrade and swingtrade to keep the juice flowing......
 
We're kinda slow until FED speak next week. The 90 day outlook is weak. But a good chance we spike after FED speak into Options Expiration to retest May high.

The sell idea for today was for longer term traders which should be hedged if we drift higher to retest May high and allowed to run when and if we break lower.

Suttmeier yesterday reiterated targets which he says are even lower than my 1450-1470 target for the SP500. He says his model spit out a 1350 low on an annual basis.

That to me is too low given the FED's intent to wrestle this market.

I still believe 1470-ish is certainly doable by Mid-Sept if not earlier.

For now I guess it's day and swing trading. But LONG for the LONG-TERM? I can't see any competent trader initiating longs up here except for day and short 2 day swing trades.
 
This could quite possibly be the case. I’m not sure how much higher the bull market has to run? DOW 16000? S&P 1700? It seems like P/E ratios are starting to get really elevated across the board.
 
Quote from Lojanica:

"Kabuki theater with a Potemkin Village as a backdrop"
More...


Like a great trader I know once said you'd be surprised how long mispriced assets can continue. Think RE in 2005 or tech stocks in 1st qtr 2000. Feels like forever if you're over levered on the wrong side. I only hope the word hedged ---and by the looks of today's numbers--- many are through quad witching.
 
Volatility has shown that it is likely here to stay for awhile at least.

A volatility trade not based on direction could make money. Skewed short?

Any who I'll repost on this thread in Sept. to follow-up on the initial premise.

GLTA
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top