Kept It Simple - Is This Something??

Walther · Dec 12, 2002

I like this forum very much and I realize that everyone can post what they feel is OK but this is tread is just too dumb to ignore.
This guy is asking " what do you all think of my system, but I will not tell you anything about it. Do you think it will keep working in the future ?"
This is a dumbest question of the year.
Those who tried to help out despite of unwillingness of person who asked for help to participate , have my admiration.
Walter

harrytrader · Dec 12, 2002

you're so crual

Quote from Walther:

I like this forum very much and I realize that everyone can post what they feel is OK but this is tread is just too dumb to ignore.
This guy is asking " what do you all think of my system, but I will not tell you anything about it. Do you think it will keep working in the future ?"
This is a dumbest question of the year.
Those who tried to help out despite of unwillingness of person who asked for help to participate , have my admiration.
Walter

harrytrader · Dec 12, 2002

He gave statistics of its trades but as I said they are not detailed enough. You can conduct some inference if you have all the recorded datas even if you don't know the underlying mecanism. That's what statistical inference cope with fundamentally.

Quote from harrytrader:

you're so crual

compisnada2002 · Dec 12, 2002

Quote from swoop[TR]:

I think this is the most truthfull statement.....

Comp

You do not think anyone here can move a market? Think again.
You are posting strategies that may or may not work, but there are always script kiddies that will trash your entry system by trying it and the more people who try your system, the more likely it is to fail over time. It's not a matter of one person moving the market, it's a matter of many people doing it your way. I would never post my entry strategy on a board;
1) It's useless to post it, except if it's for a pure altruistic reason, traders who are not not retired should not give up their system even though it might be as simple as a Fibo indicator.
2) It might challenge your confidence when actual trading is conducted because you feel like your system is exposed. It's sad but true, traders are magicians, and magicians don't give up their tricks.
However, there are many other things that a trader can share, money management, how to find a proper system, statistical testing and so forth...
Don't take offense, but I think he is completely right in not divulging his system.

mrpace · Dec 12, 2002

Quote from Walther:

I like this forum very much and I realize that everyone can post what they feel is OK but this is tread is just too dumb to ignore.
This guy is asking " what do you all think of my system, but I will not tell you anything about it. Do you think it will keep working in the future ?"
This is a dumbest question of the year.
Those who tried to help out despite of unwillingness of person who asked for help to participate , have my admiration.
Walter

Whatever....sorry to waste your time.

LongShot · Dec 12, 2002

Quote from Walther:

I like this forum very much and I realize that everyone can post what they feel is OK but this is tread is just too dumb to ignore.
This guy is asking " what do you all think of my system, but I will not tell you anything about it. Do you think it will keep working in the future ?"
This is a dumbest question of the year.
Those who tried to help out despite of unwillingness of person who asked for help to participate , have my admiration.
Walter

Exactly Walther. "I'm not going to tell you anything about my system but but do you think its going to work??" LOL.

GD2KNO · Dec 12, 2002

the secrete is not to move the market - but to let the market tell you where it is about to move.

Just need to learn to read the map - seems some are quite good at it - others seem to come and go.

mrpace · Dec 13, 2002

A select few on here appear to be as arrogant as they come. I post some results from some trades I've taken over the past 10 or so days (well over 100 trades in all), and look for some feedback on the results. How is this such an "out there" request???

There should be MANY traders out there familiar with statistical analysis of results who could give me a ballpark figure as to how many trades I should have under my belt before I begin to think I have something that might continue into the future. Or they could tell me that it is a positive that my trades in both ES and NQ have similar win percentages....etc...

Analysis of results (even very simple analysis) does not need the underlying method to be revealed in order to be useful.

I genuinely thank those who responded in a helpful way to my post. To those who felt the need to clutter this thread with their high and mighty attitudes....well....you know what you can do.

Volker Knapp · Dec 13, 2002

Problem is really that the period of the backtesting is not long enough. Also when back testing there might have been a mistake in the way it is programmed. Since you have done real time trading by now, we might exclude the programming error. A common error here is an open range break out system tested in TS that does have a low "bouncing tick" setting. Otherwise it looks like you make money, but just test it on 5 years of ID data.

Volker

harrytrader · Dec 13, 2002

The statistic you give has a good biais impression but I can't really say nothing else since the detailed trades are not known.

For example on 10-Dec you made 11 trades for 6 winners:

10-Dec 6 11 $297.20

If some of the trades are correlated (for example if you take some positions one after another because you are in a winning position) this biais must be substracted so it's better to sample randomly although it seems to be a rare practice in trading, statistically it would be more significant.

Quote from mrpace:

A select few on here appear to be as arrogant as they come. I post some results from some trades I've taken over the past 10 or so days (well over 100 trades in all), and look for some feedback on the results. How is this such an "out there" request???

There should be MANY traders out there familiar with statistical analysis of results who could give me a ballpark figure as to how many trades I should have under my belt before I begin to think I have something that might continue into the future. Or they could tell me that it is a positive that my trades in both ES and NQ have similar win percentages....etc...

Analysis of results (even very simple analysis) does not need the underlying method to be revealed in order to be useful.

I genuinely thank those who responded in a helpful way to my post. To those who felt the need to clutter this thread with their high and mighty attitudes....well....you know what you can do.