Kept It Simple - Is This Something??

mrpace · Dec 10, 2002

I'm using a simple strategy, and am getting some pretty impressive results in the ES and NQ minis....I'd like an honest opinion or two on whether or not I should get excited over these results to date....I am using a preset stop (1 point ES, 2.5 points NQ) and preset targets (2 points ES, 5 points NQ). Should I expect results like this to continue??

These results account for commissions (IB) and are based on trading 1 contract each of ES and NQ.....

First the data from ES:

Code:

Date	Wins	Trades	 P/L 			Trading Days In A Year ~			250
10-Dec	6	11	 $297.20 			Days In Sample=			11
9-Dec	5	10	 $202.00 			Cumulative P/L=			 $1,974.00 
6-Dec	6	7	 $516.40 			Projected P/L=			 $44,863.64 
5-Dec	9	15	 $528.00 			Win%=			48%
4-Dec	4	10	 $52.00 			Total # Of Trades=			120
3-Dec	4	10	 $52.00 			Avg # Of Trades/Day=			10.90909091
2-Dec	12	29	 $210.80 			Points Won/Lost=			51
29-Nov	3	8	 $11.60 						
27-Nov	2	4	 $80.80 						
26-Nov	1	6	 $(178.80)						
25-Nov	5	10	 $202.00

And data from NQ:

Code:

Date	Wins	Trades	 P/L 			Trading Days In A Year ~			250
10-Dec	2	6	 $(28.80)			Days In Sample=			10
9-Dec	2	3	 $135.60 			Cumulative P/L=			 $1,111.20 
6-Dec	4	7	 $216.40 			Projected P/L=			 $27,780.00 
5-Dec	7	15	 $228.00 			Win%=			46%
4-Dec	4	12	 $(57.60)			Total # Of Trades=			81
3-Dec	2	5	 $26.00 			Avg # Of Trades/Day=			8.1
2-Dec	3	7	 $66.40 			Points Won/Lost=			75
27-Nov	5	9	 $256.80 						
26-Nov	4	8	 $161.60 						
25-Nov	4	9	 $106.80

Not looking for a flame war, and not looking to sell anything. Just looking for opinions. I've been trading for 2 years now, and this is the first time I'm actually making any sort of money....

Sorry if this post scrolls to the right, but this is the best way I have of posting it without losing formatting.

Thanks in advance for any response.

GD2KNO · Dec 10, 2002

YOU SEEM TO BE MAKING CONSISTENT PROFITS - HOW HAS IT GONE THESE PAST THREE DAYS - A BIT CHOPPY AND HURT MANY SYSTEMS.

MY ONLY QUESTION IS - ARE YOU EARNING ENOUGH TO PAY FOR THE TIME AND ENERGY YOU PUT INTO IT?

NEED TO KNOW WHAT YOU WANT TO ACHIEVE TO KNOW IF YOU ARE SUCCEEDING

GD2KNO · Dec 10, 2002

I JUST TOOK A SECOND LOOK AT YUR RESULTS - I'D BE VERY PLEASED IF I WERE YOU WITH YOUR PAST FEW DAYS - IF THAT TURNS OUT TO BE "AVERAGE" YOU HAVE A GREAT CAREER AHEAD OF YOU.
KEEP IT UP

DblArrow · Dec 11, 2002

Personnally, I don't see why you can't keep this up.

It seems to be about what I am trying to do also.

Make 'em pretty, Chris

LongShot · Dec 11, 2002

how the hell can anyone tell if this will work with no knowledge of system elements and with only seeing 11 days of results

christ i don't have a clue. maybe it's all luck to date.

Runningbear · Dec 11, 2002

They are excellent results. I would be happy with them if they could be averaged over a year.

Is your system completly mechanical? If if is you should be able to backtest the strategy and see how it has performed in the past.

If it has performed poorly in the past then it may just be that its current success is a general anomoly to the average.

Runningbear

mrpace · Dec 11, 2002

Thanks for the replies to date. I guess what I'm really asking is how long before I can be reasonably sure that what I'm seeing is more than just a coincidence or a fortuitous random event....

How many trades, or how many days worth of data do I need to make my results significant?? As Mulder said in the X-files, "I want to believe".....LOL

DblArrow · Dec 11, 2002

Quote from mrpace:

How many trades, or how many days worth of data do I need to make my results significant?? As Mulder said in the X-files, "I want to believe".....LOL

Only time will tell - as long it (the system, style or idea) continues to make money and you continue to trade it properly.

Make 'em pretty, Chris

easyrider · Dec 11, 2002

Dont get too excited yet. I had several runs much longer than that which did not pan out.

rs7 · Dec 11, 2002

Quote from mrpace:

I guess what I'm really asking is how long before I can be reasonably sure that what I'm seeing is more than just a coincidence or a fortuitous random event....

You should get a pretty good feel only after you go through an equivenlently bad streak and rebound. Which will happen (unfortunately). You will know in your heart and head if the "system" is for you if you stick with it even after it hurts you.

Looks good so far....keep the faith!

A real time frame in which to judge a "system", or more accurately your ability to trade a "system" would be a year IMO. (But even then, a lot can change after a year...the only "secret" I ever knew was the willingness to adapt to a changing market).

Good luck!!

rs7