As I was watching Kenny Rogers' performance against the mighty yankees, I was reflecting on its perfect analogy with trading, i.e., everything is possible (Black swan) ! The probability that Rogers would go for 7+ innings without a run was very small, according to past poor results against the yankees. Nethertheless, it happened. Some sport talk show host in New York, before the game, promised his pal that he would buy a season ticket for next year season of the San Francisco Giants, would Rogers go without a run ! (That pal is a Giant fan). What this talk show host should have known, as any experienced trader would know, is that you never go "all in" in this prediction business. But I guess some people will never learn the lesson, that , yes, everything is possible. I found it very interesting , in view of the many calls just posted on ET with the top on S&P, and what not !
Kenny Rogers and the Black Swan
- Thread starter ACM Trader
- Start date
As a diehard Yankee who watched every Yankee game on television this year, I saw it coming. So called talking head experts in the media proclaiming this the best line-up ever are to be taken with as much credence as CNBC talking heads experts interpreting what is going on in the market. Come October, Rodriguez will never compare to Scott Brosius, Giambi will never compare to Tino Martinez, Bobby Abreu will never compare to Paul O'Neill, and Cano cannot yet even compare to Luis Sojo. The lesson here is if you are a sports gambler being a contrarian will serve you better than betting on what is being touted as the sure thing. The public is usually wrong. If you are a trader being a contrarian to what is served up as market consensus in the media will serve you well also.
As someone who was never able to beat Vegas sports betting in > 10 years...
But has been very, very successful for > 10 years as a trader on the NYSE...
Your post is a good example why.
"Wise guys" do exactly the kind of "inside baseball" analysis you just posted...
On a very sophisticated and obsessive level...
So casual fans/bettors or people using computers/quantitaive techniques...
Can't even come close to taking the money away from the "wise guys".
Conversely... in the markets...
There is so much "noise" that quantitative techniques work better than "wise guy" analysis.
Another way of looking at it...
The NYSE is far ** less efficient ** in pricing certain types of stocks...
Than are the bookies and wise guys in Vegas are at pricing sports.
Then why was online poker banned in order to "protect us from terrorists" but stock trading is actively encouraged and the gov't even wants to put SS money into the market?
Great thread!! How's this one. Cody Ross played for THREE different NL teams this year(a rarity in itself) In 269 at bats he hit a whopping .227 with 13 HR's and 46 RBI's. Yet TWICE in 2006 he had SEVEN RBI's in a game becoming only the second rookie in MLB history to accomplish that feat. The five home runs and 14 RBI for the two games were more than any other month for Ross this season. Imagine the odds.......
Ironic post. As my "Top's Is In" thread illustrates, even after 23 years of full time trading, my market procrastinations leave much to be desired. Yet I'm a consistent winner in sports betting (primarily the NFL) although I also caught the Heat at 6-1 to win the NBA Eastern Conf. 
I agree with your point. I'm a VERY contrarian handicapper. I'd never heard the term "wise guy bet" until a couple of weeks ago. But after I hit a few 'dogs my neighbor said 'those wise guy bets are going to catch up with you"...
Unfortunately, I'm also a contrarian, anti-trend, "wise guy" trader. Doesn't work so well in these 4 year bull swings.......
I agree with your point. I'm a VERY contrarian handicapper. I'd never heard the term "wise guy bet" until a couple of weeks ago. But after I hit a few 'dogs my neighbor said 'those wise guy bets are going to catch up with you"...
Unfortunately, I'm also a contrarian, anti-trend, "wise guy" trader. Doesn't work so well in these 4 year bull swings.......
I am a daytrader. I put my contrarian mindset in buying gap downs off the open, and looking to buy on the intraday lows which follows my basic strategy of buying into weakness and selling into strength. I will reverse that by selling into strength and covering into weaknesss if that looks to be the play. What I never do is buy into strength looking to sell into more strength.I would call that momentum trading and momentum trending was rewarded during the bubble era, but I am not sure it works when the indices trading ranges are relatively and historically in a rather narrow range.
I'm usually a scalp/swing trader myself and the strategies you employ also serve me well. Every year or so though my evil twin comes out to play.....
<p>A little over twenty years ago I was a big sports bettor. I was semi-successful, I was very good at the NFL and took those winnings and lost them on college basketball. I used technical analysis and bet the number more than I bet the team. I consistently made money betting against -2 or lower favorites. The public loves to bet the favorite but they like to shop price. They nor the media can hardly resist taking a "cheap favorite".