Kelly Criterion & Risk Of Ruin As Risk Management Tool

[ironchef]

If you are still thanking me in 1 years time.. you will have learned something of real value!

I will thank you again in a year.

"There is more value in the blink of an eye..than in months or rational analysis"

Sure but if you have patience, eventually rational analysis and fundamental valuation will prevail.

I just wish I was 30 years younger..as you only really start to understand and learn as you get older.. unfortunately there is no easy way..just the way the silly mind works

No need to look back. Life is wonderful because few of us ended up where we thought we would be, but often better. Every new day is a bonus.

 

[MrScalper]

I will thank you again in a year.



Sure but if you have patience, eventually rational analysis and fundamental valuation will prevail.



No need to look back. Life is wonderful because few of us ended up where we thought we would be, but often better. Every new day is a bonus.

It all depends on your available time.. capital..and experience. It is so easy to make money trading..which is exactly why so many find it so hard.

The biggest problem is by far yourself..and no matter how hard one tries different things..they are all futile if you don't sort yourself out first!

So much hype.. foolishness.. carelessness.. stupidity and just a lack of good old common sense..but then again..that is what ignorance does to people..the big problem of course is being able to differentiate between information of real value..and plain old bullshit

 

[ironchef]

It is so easy to make money trading..which is exactly why so many find it so hard.

The biggest problem is by far yourself..and no matter how hard one tries different things..they are all futile if you don't sort yourself out first!

For you it is easy. For me it is hard work!

I agree I am the problem. For every trade I have to spend time analyzing, calculating, researching and now chart reading , before I can pull the trigger.

So much hype.. foolishness.. carelessness.. stupidity and just a lack of good old common sense..but then again..that is what ignorance does to people..the big problem of course is being able to differentiate between information of real value..and plain old bullshit

Perhaps, but I have an open mind. The "bs" forced me to reexamine my method so nothing is wasted. Some posters said you spilled bs here but your posts are my Rosetta Stone!

Best wishes.

 

[MrScalper]

For you it is easy. For me it is hard work!

I agree I am the problem. For every trade I have to spend time analyzing, calculating, researching and now chart reading , before I can pull the trigger.

Perhaps, but I have an open mind. The "bs" forced me to reexamine my method so nothing is wasted. Some posters said you spilled bs here but your posts are my Rosetta Stone!

Best wishes.

My words are bullshit to those who have no experience..very little money..use high leverage..and are lazy !

My words make sense to those with a lot of experience.. adequate money..very little or no use of leverage..and are not lazy

You can analyze all you want..back-test until the cows come home..read up on Fibs or DOM..it really does not make one little bit of difference..if.. you are not aware of what it takes to make money..and more importantly.. how to hold on to it!

When I met CW some years ago..he told me a story about the Russians (not a racist post just saying exactly what happened)..and how for years those in power had no value on a persons life..the thought of getting rid of someone (it so transpires that Stalin murdered more of his own people than the millions of Jews that Hitler murdered) didn't bother them one little bit!

"What has that got to do with trading" I asked?

"Think about it" said CW!

He was right..understanding what he meant has a lot to do with "becoming a successful trader" !!

 

[ironchef]

My words make sense to those with a lot of experience.. adequate money..very little or no use of leverage..and are not lazy

You can analyze all you want..back-test until the cows come home..read up on Fibs or DOM..it really does not make one little bit of difference..if.. you are not aware of what it takes to make money..and more importantly.. how to hold on to it!

I know how to make money but not with chart reading and day trading, so let me ask you and MACD another relevant question:

TA and FA are like A Tale Of Two Cities, can one lives in both?

There are successful investors (and traders) using FA, e.g., Graham, Buffett, Burry.... Then there are successful traders using TA, e.g., Benedict, Dennis, Eckhardt, Thorp and many here, you MACD, Handle, comagnum, JackRab..... Do you have an opinion on combining both for trading? I know what you are going to say: Keep things simple, just using charts, why complicating things. So, I am looking for a pros and cons discussion.

Thank you in advance.

 

[MrScalper]

I know how to make money but not with chart reading and day trading, so let me ask you and MACD another relevant question:

TA and FA are like A Tale Of Two Cities, can one lives in both?

There are successful investors (and traders) using FA, e.g., Graham, Buffett, Burry.... Then there are successful traders using TA, e.g., Benedict, Dennis, Eckhardt, Thorp and many here, you MACD, Handle, comagnum, JackRab..... Do you have an opinion on combining both for trading? I know what you are going to say: Keep things simple, just using charts, why complicating things. So, I am looking for a pros and cons discussion.

Thank you in advance.

It depends on many things..such as.. your available time.. how much money you have..what you have learned..what you know to be reasonable..what you know is ridiculous..so..it really is up to the individual to work out what is best..the outcome shows if the individual is clever..or just another dumb ass trader

 

[ironchef]

It depends on many things..such as.. your available time.. how much money you have..what you have learned..what you know to be reasonable..what you know is ridiculous..so..it really is up to the individual to work out what is best..the outcome shows if the individual is clever..or just another dumb ass trader

Of course. If you are already a market wizard using TA, no need to add FA to the mix. If you are already a successful investor using FA, why add TA. For you elite traders, simplicity (and the chart) is king.

For some of us in between perhaps adding FA to TA or TA to FA can help juice the outcome, unless the outcome was actually random and I was fooled by randomness.

 

[MrScalper]

Of course. If you are already a market wizard using TA, no need to add FA to the mix. If you are already a successful investor using FA, why add TA. For you elite traders, simplicity (and the chart) is king.

For some of us in between perhaps adding FA to TA or TA to FA can help juice the outcome, unless the outcome was actually random and I was fooled by randomness.

Have you done any work on your plan yet..or are you going to wait until 2018

I recently came across a new investment opportunity for those who are too lazy to do some thinking for themselves..it went something like this..

min investment = $150,000
no up front fee
management fee of 1.5% per annum
9 different "strategies" to keep the risk low!!
max drawdown 6% - not sure what they mean by this as they don't take your money out and give it back to you..so..they probably mean the max risk per year is 6%..after which they stop and re-evaluate the "strategies" before starting again!!!!
no guarantee..you can lose some or all of your money..but of course they will not let that happen as they have engaged highly trained "professionals" to trade the strategies..LOFL

I am sure they will have many takers..as most are just too damn lazy to do any work that involves some serious thinking..time commitment..and last but not least..risking SOME of your hard earned money to try and make a bit more!

 

[ironchef]

Have you done any work on your plan yet..or are you going to wait until 2018

Yes, I do have a plan. I know the market will turn, the only question is when.

In the mean time I have homework to do: Chart reading exercise.

best wishes.

 

[ironchef]

I recently came across a new investment opportunity for those who are too lazy to do some thinking for themselves..it went something like this..

min investment = $150,000
no up front fee
management fee of 1.5% per annum
9 different "strategies" to keep the risk low!!
max drawdown 6% - not sure what they mean by this as they don't take your money out and give it back to you..so..they probably mean the max risk per year is 6%..after which they stop and re-evaluate the "strategies" before starting again!!!!
no guarantee..you can lose some or all of your money..but of course they will not let that happen as they have engaged highly trained "professionals" to trade the strategies..LOFL

I am sure they will have many takers..as most are just too damn lazy to do any work that involves some serious thinking..time commitment..and last but not least..risking SOME of your hard earned money to try and make a bit more!

How can they predict the max drawdown/risk is 6%? And when they reach the 6%, if it goes down more, are they going to make the investors whole? If so, I am in.