Keeping Records

[garage sale]

Quote from Arthur Deco:

If I may, I would like to ask why you see this as a long-only setup? Superficially it looks to me like it should work short also.

It does work but not as frequently though. I went back and looked at the 3 months charts to see if the reverse set-ups worked for the short trades. It worked but the win % was small. Many thimes you'd be stopped out and the position will be profitable. The best way to approach short is when you are stopped twice after the strong set-up occurs, it tells us that the market is weak and can fall hard.

6/29 was one of the big down days and had I traded the reverse set-up, I would have been stopped out but if I had traded the reverse set-up after being stopped out twice going long, it would have been very profitable. Like I said this works on down days too (going long), so currently I'll focus on that and as I start consistently making money, I'll look for other set-ups too.

Let's see what this month brings. I am trying to start slow and make consitent profits without having huge down swings.

 

[gcabrera]

Quote from garage sale:

The entry time was 12.22pst and exit was at 12.39. The order would have been entered at 12.20pst.

Buy limit was at 26.25, price came down to 26 and exit was at 34.

Here is the 1 min chart. I have market the entry and exit. This was one of the strong set-up. I was going through my trades and noticed that strong set-up almost always makes money and a failed strong set-up can be used to go the other way. The weak set-up makes monney if it is above prior day's low and the bad set-ups almost always loses money.

Hi, I just saw your chart and couldn't help marking it where I think there were good retests of previous swing levels , that may help you anticipate moves and enter with less risk. Not all of them produce large profits.

Take care

Gerardo

 

[Arthur Deco]

Thanks so much for explaining what you are doing. I will disturb your excellent thread no more. You have my insincere best wishes for your success!

 

[garage sale]

I did not trade today because I have family in town. There was a long signal at 8.42pst, Entry 54.25 and stop 52.75. I would have been stopped out on this trade. This was a strong set-up and the market declined after that.

At 12.41, there was another long signal B 23.75, stop 21.75 and this would have been profitable for 8 points.

I will trade only the strong set-ups and if I am stopped out on that I will look for shorting opoortunity.

Thanks everyone for your good wishes!!!

 

[garage sale]

One would think that a long only strategy should do good on a day like today, but the market went up without me on board. I usually wait for a break of 30, to go long but the market never went below the 30 min bar till 11.35. I entered an order B 68.5, stop 68....but it came down to 68.75 and went up, up and away.
Today's action is hopefully an exception. It seems that thepull-back has ended and am looking for 1200 in SP.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from garage sale:

One would think that a long only strategy should do good on a day like today, but the market went up without me on board. I usually wait for a break of 30, to go long but the market never went below the 30 min bar till 11.35. I entered an order B 68.5, stop 68....but it came down to 68.75 and went up, up and away.
Today's action is hopefully an exception. It seems that thepull-back has ended and am looking for 1200 in SP.

I'm not totally clear on your strategy. You wait for price to break down a 30 min bar before going long? That seems totally opposite of how to trade a trend. Wouldn't you be looking to buy a few ticks ABOVE an opening bar's high for a long entry? (Or a few ticks above a previous high for long entry into a strong trend.)

 

[garage sale]

Quote from NoDoji:

I'm not totally clear on your strategy. You wait for price to break down a 30 min bar before going long? That seems totally opposite of how to trade a trend. Wouldn't you be looking to buy a few ticks ABOVE an opening bar's high for a long entry? (Or a few ticks above a previous high for long entry into a strong trend.)

I wait for price to break below the 30 min, then rally. I usually buy near the high.

 

[garage sale]

There were 3 strong set-ups today.

The first one was at 7.33pst. B 99, S, 98, T 107. I did not take this trade because of the recent resistance above 1800 - 1803 area. This was a good decision because I would have been stopped out on that trade. As I had mentioned earlier that a failed strong set-up can be used as a short-trigger. In the attached chart, if you look at number 3 on the left chart, that's where you want to go short and would have been good for 20 points.

The second set-up occured at 9.17pst, B 81.25, S 79.5, T 89.25. This trade was profitable but the target was never met and a trailing stop took me out. In hindsight I should have put the trailing stop at 83.5 which was 10 min low. I got out with $6 profit on this.

The third trade was at 11.39, B 79, S 78, T 87. Price came down to 78.75 and went up to 86.75 before hittin my trailing stop at 81. I did not get stopped out because of 1 tick and didn't get my target because of 1 tick.

Overall, 2 trades for a profit of $42. So far for the month and week I am up $36 and would love to end the week with a profit.

I have attached the 3 charts.

Note: I am doing very good in terms of waiting for the right set-up to play. I am not getting excited after a win or depressed after a loss. So far I am following my plan!!!

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from garage sale:

I am not getting excited after a win or depressed after a loss. So far I am following my plan!!!

Every now and then you end up positioned just right and price makes an incredible unexpected move in your favor (such as the day when I was short the ES and Spain was downgraded). Your P/L gets bigger and greener by the second and you end up with a profit that's 5 or 10 times what you expected.

I was very fortunate one day to be in a chat room with a long-time trader when this happened to him and he demonstrated the cool, collected way a seasoned professional handles a situation like this:

"Yippie!!!"

 

[garage sale]

Quote from NoDoji:

Every now and then you end up positioned just right and price makes an incredible unexpected move in your favor (such as the day when I was short the ES and Spain was downgraded). Your P/L gets bigger and greener by the second and you end up with a profit that's 5 or 10 times what you expected.

I was very fortunate one day to be in a chat room with a long-time trader when this happened to him and he demonstrated the cool, collected way a seasoned professional handles a situation like this:

"Yippie!!!"

Thanks. I have noticed a significant change on how I act and react now. Last year I traded live and did good for a while and started doing stupid stuff and lost. Now I am more calm and NOT trying to pick each and every turn. The last 2 days I just sat there because the set-ups that I was looking for did not happen. The good thing about my set-up is that on average stops are less than 2 points, so I'll have to be wrong 100 times in a row before I lose any sleep. Losing 100 times in a row is possible but not probable.

This morning I thought about taking the short trade, but since it was not written on my plan, I did not take it. Sure I could have made 20 points there, but I feel even better that I followed my plan and stuck with it. I will revise the plan this weekend to incorporate short trades too.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. I will love to end the week with a profit (Who won't???).