Keeping It Simple II

[spedblavio]

If you backtest this stuff, you'll find that days when price takes off and never looks back are rare.

Right, which is why I don't think it's a good idea to take an entry which relies on that happening to work.

Trying to accommodate them affects the strategy, which must be applied every day, not just on those days when price behaves in an unusual way.

I agree. What I'm suggesting is not trying to accomodate a rare situation, but rather not to be suckered into something that might act like a rare situation but most likely turn out not to be; a procedure that should not come into play in typical conditions.

To me, passing on entry due to an uncorrected single swing OR is very similar to passing due to an xbar gobbling up most of the OR and hitting entry trigger at it's end.

So, I am not clear... are you suggesting that the 1064.00 BO entry should've been taken systematically regardless of the one-directional OR?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from spedblavio:

[Bare you suggesting that the 1064.00 BO entry should've been taken systematically regardless of the one-directional OR? [/B]

No, no opening range was established, unless you consider the first trade of the day as the opening range low. If you did, the first opportunity to enter would be 2pts above the 1012 bar, which would be 40pts into the move. Sometimes you just have to use common sense.

You could, of course, just buy the open and hope, but that's not part of this particular strategy.

--Db

 

[monee]

Quote from dbphoenix:



No, no opening range was established, unless you consider the first trade of the day as the opening range low. If you did, the first opportunity to enter would be 2pts above the 1012 bar, which would be 40pts into the move. Sometimes you just have to use common sense.

You could, of course, just buy the open and hope, but that's not part of this particular strategy.

--Db

Great mindset D.B.
Based on todays premkt futures gap up I decided to leave the house so I would not have a problem wanting to break/invent a rule for entry.
I imagine an afternoon pullback would provide entry but the mkt would be attempting to travel beyond its daily range.
I'll take a down/flat day to trade anytime.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from monee:

Great mindset D.B.

Maybe, though a lot of people here would snort and think "loser".

The strategy posted here, of course, is not the only strategy I use. Even so, this "rally" is no different from the one we had on the 13th, gap and everything. When I woke up and saw the +22, I knew what I was going to do. Or not do. Therefore, I wasn't tempted to chase it.

--Db

 

[dbphoenix]

For the sake of accuracy, I suppose I shouldn't say this rally is just like the one on the 13th. This is, for example, an island reversal on the NQs, which carries a bit more weight.

But you know what I mean. This rally is an emotional response to news, like the 13th.

--Db

 

[monee]

A plan keeps one from getting into trouble.

I have found that based on the dailys I have certain strategies
that I am looking to use at certain times of the day.

A true key to success, is being able to see moves that happened without fitting into ones strategies,and not being upset and deviating from your plan.

Like I said in a previous post if I can obviously see there is no setup for me that day I will leave the house.It's always on my mind that my strategies work, so don't be impatient,or be a pig trying for something I shouldn't.
Kind of hard to trade if your not in front of your trading computer.

I also setup another computer in a room with no tv,no charts accessible and no trading screen.

D.B your insight on the discipline end of trading?

 

[spedblavio]

I understand what you're saying. Teresa would often comment about days like this, how non-trading folks would look at EOD and say "wow, you must have had a great day today!" when in fact it would be hard to explain to them that there just weren't any good opportunities to enter and it wasn't a good trading day.

But ("snort"), my rules backtested for 39.5 pts on the 13th with no special tricky exceptions, very straightforward. I did not catch it in real time (I wasn't testing the same rules at the time), but I came damn close with 2 stabs and quit just as the 3rd stab would've done it.

I just think that, unless and until my data shows otherwise, with a Lrg gap (maybe 1.8% and larger) or "Potential Trend Day" conditions (gap above/below previous day's high/low, in direction counter to swing on daily chart), the odds favor continuation away from the gap. It may only be a creeper day for sure, but if the early entry window is caught that's ok. In any case, I ignore any triggers into the gap, unless price action builds a very strong case for it (which probably would mean building a staircase into the gap, demonstrating support/resistance outside the gap-ward edge of the OR).

Today and the 13th are both Lrg gaps and PTD, a strong combo. Unfortunately, today didn't set up a nice entry like the 13th did. And as much weight as I may give the gap and PTD, closing my eyes and buying the open is not in my plan either. One can see from the 13th that there needs to be a solid entry plan in place.

 

[spedblavio]

Quote from monee:

A true key to success, is being able to see moves that happened without fitting into ones strategies,and not being upset and deviating from your plan.

I agree with that, though I might quibble about whether it's a key to success or a byproduct of it... I'm not sure.

 

[dbphoenix]

That's true. The 13th was a stairstep day (I used it as an example in the Determining Trend thread) and there were multiple entry points. Today, however, there's been only one stairstep entry, and if one had taken it, he'd be stuck in congestion right now as just about the breakeven point (if one had taken the pullback entry after 1000, he'd be around three pts ahead, which is a far cry from forty).

Note that volume has dried up and there's no selling pressure, and we've been in this range for around 90m. So I'm not on pins and needles for any big reversal.

--Db

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from spedblavio:



I agree with that, though I might quibble about whether it's a key to success or a byproduct of it... I'm not sure.

Both. A beginning trader has to face certain facts about relinquishing control. Once he does that, he's more likely to be successful, and success enables him to maintain discipline and focus even further.

--Db