Keeping It Simple II

Quote from spedblavio:

I think it might also depend on whether I was specifically playing the gap itself or if I was just using the "gravity boost" as a vehicle to get to BE quickly and be positioned to ride any further continuation.

As far as a TL breach before getting to BE, am I correct that you would not draw a TL until you could do so on the 3min or 5min chart?
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As far as playing the gap, your chart review may suggest that it's better to take the target and re-enter than it is to hang on and hope.

As for a TL breach before BE, the entry should move. If it doesn't, I'd rather get out and wait for a better opportunity. It's better to get out for -1 or -2 or even -3 points than start the day with a 5pt loss. The 5pt loss limit is intended to be just that. The trader shouldn't just sit there like a chump and wait for the stop to be hit even though it's obvious that his trade isn't taking off.

--Db
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

And what reason would one have to expect that the 20% stop-losses wouldn't just pile up?

--Db
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That's why I say it takes a lot of guts to trade this system. This is an even simpler variation - only 7 lines of code and only 1 line for entry and 1 line for exit. Look at the unbelievable results.

pretzel
 
Quote from pretzel:

That's why I say it takes a lot of guts to trade this system. This [ ] is an even simpler variation - only 7 lines of code and only 1 line for entry and 1 line for exit. Look at the unbelievable results
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I don't know if "guts" is the word I'd use. As for the other, the code makes no sense to me, and the results mean nothing unless I know enough details regarding the system so that I can test it myself.

I'm always on the lookout for simple systems. Unfortunately, most of those who claim to have one do not provide enough details so that the system can be tested. When someone does provide sufficient details and I then test it, I find that whatever they're doing is no better - and generally much worse - than what I'm doing right now.

For example, lindq was pleased that he made 38 long stock points on the 12th and 13th. But the system I've posted logged 35.5 untweaked NQ points on the 13th alone. Why on earth would I want to switch to his system?

If you want simple, go long or short a breakout of the first 30m bar. Period. If you want to know how to make the most of that strategy, then a few embellishments will be required.

--Db
 
You can find the "details" of this ridiculously simple system here. Dont even have to be glued to the monitor to trade this system. And, I never asked anybody to switch - just showing another simple system - since this thread is about simple systems.

I tried this system before but it's hard psychologically because you will be catching a falling knife in actual trading, that's why I say "guts" .


BTW, the opening bar breakout of the first 60 mins fares better than the breakout of the first 30 mins in backtest.

Since you're on the lookout for simple systems, here's another one called L/S Model with probably enough details to make sense.


pretzel
 
Quote from pretzel:

I tried this system before but it's hard psychologically because you will be catching a falling knife in actual trading, that's why I say "guts" .
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I don't know if "guts" is the word I'd choose. Maybe "recklessness". All systems will trade differently than they backtest. Therefore, any system under consideration should be paper-traded in real time to get an estimate of how extensive those differences might be.

There's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.

--Db
 
DB,

Please refresh my memory on your position on gaps by telling me whether you took the 1062.50 breakout today or not. I have a problem trusting an entry into a breakout that's going in the direction of existing gap like it was today. The gap, (by my figuring was already 2.47% at the opening so I didn't take the 9:22 (CST) breakout. Did you, and if so, did you hold it through the 10:33 rally to 1063.50?
 
Since gaps that large have only a 36% chance of filling, I pass. I waited for the downside.

Wasn't a great day, but it made 12 pts.

--Db
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

Since gaps that large have only a 36% chance of filling, I pass. I waited for the downside.

Wasn't a great day, but it made 12 pts.

--Db
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So I take it you didn't move you stop to BE when the position got to a 5 point gain? (Just before the false rally to 1063.50.)
 
Actually, I got in a little early. But even if I hadn't, there was a reaction high at 1064.0 at 10:36, and it didn't make sense to place the stop just a tick or two away from that. If one were nervous, it would make more sense to get out at a breach of the 11:03 reaction high and re-enter, or not move the stop to BE at all.

Note that in my revisions, there is no moving the stop to BE when X pts ahead. I don't move it to BE until the TL is broken.

--Db
 
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