we had a much smaller hurricane in sep 04 that hurt production and sent crude on a rally from 45 to 55 in less than two months. 80 would not seem out of the question in two months if things are more severe.
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Katrina a 5, Oil at?
- Thread starter protrader-2K5
- Start date
newbunch...
excellent point.
Currently there is very little that can change the path that this storm is tracking...
plus with water temps in the 90's in some parts of the Gulf, it is providing Ultra High Octane Fuel for this storm.
when does oil open up on the NYMEX?
excellent point.
Currently there is very little that can change the path that this storm is tracking...
plus with water temps in the 90's in some parts of the Gulf, it is providing Ultra High Octane Fuel for this storm.
when does oil open up on the NYMEX?
calends,
Oil will open up where ever. It will settle a bit and then start its climb.
I think it will climb as long as there is uncertainty about the damage. It may not climb fast but I think it will cimb.
After the intial hit, projected to be 8 am... then the reports will start rolling in... CNN, CNBC, etc. From there it's pure speculation as to the damage caused. The higher the numbers... the higher and possibly faster oil climbs.
However it there is even the slightest bit of "Whew... that was close" well we could see as big fall in oil... about 2 to 3 dollars and of course the markets will rally pretty hard...
Just my opinion
what do you guys think?
Oil will open up where ever. It will settle a bit and then start its climb.
I think it will climb as long as there is uncertainty about the damage. It may not climb fast but I think it will cimb.
After the intial hit, projected to be 8 am... then the reports will start rolling in... CNN, CNBC, etc. From there it's pure speculation as to the damage caused. The higher the numbers... the higher and possibly faster oil climbs.
However it there is even the slightest bit of "Whew... that was close" well we could see as big fall in oil... about 2 to 3 dollars and of course the markets will rally pretty hard...
Just my opinion
what do you guys think?
Quote from newbunch:
I think oil will rise and oil stocks will lag or stay flat. Oil companies will be hurt by their lost production and damaged rigs and refineries.
This is a good point. The bulk of my oil stocks are Canadian energy which should see a significant rise as they're located in the Alberta oil sands. Canadian dollar should see a pop too. Any firm owning refiners in the gulf may be a problem...
What about a stock like XOM though?
I don't know the specifics, but I heard on the news that Exxon has already closed many of it's rigs in the Gulf. I'm not sure what percent of their business that accounts for.Quote from The Kin:
This is a good point. The bulk of my oil stocks are Canadian energy which should see a significant rise as they're located in the Alberta oil sands. Canadian dollar should see a pop too. Any firm owning refiners in the gulf may be a problem...
What about a stock like XOM though?
Quote from prt_systems:
My high target for oil sits right around 75 and this is based upon a little model that I have maintained for a long time on the demand structure of petroleum. But hey, who am I - nobody so take my prediction as what it is ...
More importantly, a category 5 hurricane making a direct hit upon New Orleans will be utter devastation to the city and anyone that is there during the storm..... I'm not really sure I understand why the the national gaurd and army was not activated to get everyone out of there .....
If its a category 5 direct hit on the city everyone there deserves a prayer ...
You're $75 seems reasonable. I was expecting a short term correction next week then a price climax to $78 when all the hot money get-rich-quick retail traders piled onto the crude bandwagon. If a few rigs do get damaged I'll have to reassess my short position and go long.