Thanks for the link. A new one in my arsenal !
Kass: Why the Bears Are Wrong
- Thread starter aresky
- Start date
Thanks for the link. A new one in my arsenal !
He made many trading/bottom/rental calls in the columnist conversation of Realmoney. I follow it daily. Some pan out, some don't.
Here is an example. There are more if I were to keep looking:
Doug Kass
Memo to 'El Capitan'
1/8/2009 3:57 PM EST
I believe yesterday's pullback was healthy.
And I feel the market has a tradeable rally in here - back to where we sold off from two days ago.
Ns over Ss.
The Nasdaq went straight down over 100 points after that.
Several years back before the financial crisis his hand was lukewarm it seemed. Lately, it seems he has a very good hand.
I guess for me, it is because I follow the columnists in Realmoney daily so I'm more "sensitive." Kass gets rah-rahed for his good calls, but what about the bad calls? Shhhh...
And yes, I'm well aware of his provocative call of late that this is the "buy of our lifetime" or rather "generational market low." Time will tell, but I can guarantee that if that call doesn't pan out, we won't really hear much ado about it.
He's just another "guru" to me. I still do like to read him as he frequently has unique points of view.
If you read closely you will see that many of kass's trades are taking the other side of cramer calls. maybe there is a secret method to his calls.
even on this last bottom call cramer was talking about a possible 5300 dow when kass went positive.
even on this last bottom call cramer was talking about a possible 5300 dow when kass went positive.
all these calls are useless, and reading them is a waste of time.
just look at the chart. for every bull at this price, there is a bear at this price.
and everyone has an opinion of his own.
The key question is... after this run up.... how does the market react? does it revert to drops straight down? or does it only have mild reaction to the downside, with smaller volume for the next 2 weeks?
then take action accordingly... it's tape reading on the daily/weekly scale, and it's simple enough to do.
just look at the chart. for every bull at this price, there is a bear at this price.
and everyone has an opinion of his own.
The key question is... after this run up.... how does the market react? does it revert to drops straight down? or does it only have mild reaction to the downside, with smaller volume for the next 2 weeks?
then take action accordingly... it's tape reading on the daily/weekly scale, and it's simple enough to do.
March 25 (Reuters) -
JP Morgan believes that more constructive equity market environment will
develop in H2 with year-end S&P 500 target of 1100
* JP Morgan S&P 500 2009 EPS view to $57
* JP Morgan S&P 500 2010 EPS view to $76
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/03/25/afx6208738.html
JP Morgan believes that more constructive equity market environment will
develop in H2 with year-end S&P 500 target of 1100
* JP Morgan S&P 500 2009 EPS view to $57
* JP Morgan S&P 500 2010 EPS view to $76
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/03/25/afx6208738.html
The dumbest thing about this piece is it is called "Why the bears ARE wrong".
Unless you have perfect knowledge of the future, which none of us have, you cannot say that one thing or another WILL happen in future. All you can say is that, based on past experience, and your current analysis, you think you have good reasons to say that your analysis is worth following.
To use an analogy - if I have a loaded dice, which is twice as likely to roll a 6 as is normal, that is a huge edge. Yet I cannot say "this next roll will be a 6". All I can say is "If past experience is any guide, this dice is twice as likely to hit a 6 as a normal dice". To say it WILL roll a 6 is excessive extrapolation, and the height of arrogance. It is also wrong because the chance of a 6 is still only 1 in 3, i.e. I am more likely to be wrong than right.
Kass, by saying the bears ARE wrong, rather than saying that the odds are against the bears, is showing a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of uncertain future events. He is committing a schoolboy error, a grotesque blunder of anti-probabilistic thinking - arguably the worst thing you can do in the markets, short of taking insane levels of risk. Kass is talking like a clueless noob piker, and if I had money with him then I would immediately withdraw it purely because of this comment.
There is rarely certainty in the market. As speculators, traders, or investors, we deal in contingencies, probabilities, and uncertainties. Anyone who professes certainty as their ongoing market outlook is a moron.
Unless you have perfect knowledge of the future, which none of us have, you cannot say that one thing or another WILL happen in future. All you can say is that, based on past experience, and your current analysis, you think you have good reasons to say that your analysis is worth following.
To use an analogy - if I have a loaded dice, which is twice as likely to roll a 6 as is normal, that is a huge edge. Yet I cannot say "this next roll will be a 6". All I can say is "If past experience is any guide, this dice is twice as likely to hit a 6 as a normal dice". To say it WILL roll a 6 is excessive extrapolation, and the height of arrogance. It is also wrong because the chance of a 6 is still only 1 in 3, i.e. I am more likely to be wrong than right.
Kass, by saying the bears ARE wrong, rather than saying that the odds are against the bears, is showing a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of uncertain future events. He is committing a schoolboy error, a grotesque blunder of anti-probabilistic thinking - arguably the worst thing you can do in the markets, short of taking insane levels of risk. Kass is talking like a clueless noob piker, and if I had money with him then I would immediately withdraw it purely because of this comment.
There is rarely certainty in the market. As speculators, traders, or investors, we deal in contingencies, probabilities, and uncertainties. Anyone who professes certainty as their ongoing market outlook is a moron.
I don't know whether Kass wrote the headline.
He didn't profess certainty , if his view is right the bears are wrong.
It would have been pointless to write "Maybe I'm right or maybe the bears are right ".
He wrote something is likely, not certain.
"On Feb. 17, I presented a watch list of conditions that, if in an improving trend, would likely indicate that a sustainable up move is possible for equities.
It is time to review this checklist
...........
Based on the 12 considerations comprising my watch list, I respectfully disagree with the prevailing negative consensus, most of whose members failed to properly analyze the cracks in the foundation of credit, in the economy and in equities two years ago. Indeed, it remains my view that the fear of further investment losses and possible investor redemptions are clouding many managers' objectivity in assessing the markets.
In the fullness of time, public policy aimed at stimulating the economy (in general) and in housing (in particular) should bear fruit, as will the ring-fencing of toxic bank assets serve to unclog the transmission of credit.
While it is unrealistic to expect a straight up move, I am growing increasingly confident in my variant and optimistic view that the early March low was not only a yearly low but, quite possibly, a generational low. "
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10476521/1/kass-why-the-bears-are-wrong.html
He didn't profess certainty , if his view is right the bears are wrong.
It would have been pointless to write "Maybe I'm right or maybe the bears are right ".
He wrote something is likely, not certain.
"On Feb. 17, I presented a watch list of conditions that, if in an improving trend, would likely indicate that a sustainable up move is possible for equities.
It is time to review this checklist
...........
Based on the 12 considerations comprising my watch list, I respectfully disagree with the prevailing negative consensus, most of whose members failed to properly analyze the cracks in the foundation of credit, in the economy and in equities two years ago. Indeed, it remains my view that the fear of further investment losses and possible investor redemptions are clouding many managers' objectivity in assessing the markets.
In the fullness of time, public policy aimed at stimulating the economy (in general) and in housing (in particular) should bear fruit, as will the ring-fencing of toxic bank assets serve to unclog the transmission of credit.
While it is unrealistic to expect a straight up move, I am growing increasingly confident in my variant and optimistic view that the early March low was not only a yearly low but, quite possibly, a generational low. "
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10476521/1/kass-why-the-bears-are-wrong.html
For sure. We ain't seen a capitulation bottom event yet. The recent lows will be 98.6% probable (redneck science) tested and bounced or broken from there, but they will be tested again.
Russell 2000 in particular will probably lead the descent. Long is wrong as a swing-trade bias unless a true follow-thru session comes along soon.