A shot of optimism after a day of eeyorish state polls. How does Rove arrive at this result when eight of the last nine Ohio surveys have O ahead? In two steps: (1) He clearly trusts the national data over the state data, and (2) he cites historical numbers showing that incumbents recently have tended to overperform their national polling on election day by only one percent or so. Obamaâs tied with Romney in the RCP national average tonight at 47.4. If, per the historical data, Oâs ceiling is therefore at 48 percent, then it follows that most everyone else will break for Romney and that his national advantage will carry him to narrow wins in the states he needs.
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http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/31/karl-roves-prediction-romney-51-obama-48/
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http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/31/karl-roves-prediction-romney-51-obama-48/

