Karen the "Supertrader"

[drcha]

This thread reminds me of some discussions at the Morningstar discussion boards in 2007-2008 by the diehard fans of dividend stocks. There was repeated discussion of a fund, ADVDX, and whether the fund could continue its outsized distributions indefinitely.

When something has 200 posts, it's because people want to believe it, but at some level, they know it's not true. Take a look at a chart of ADVDX.

Anyone can make a ton of money selling naked strangles. It works, till it doesn't. Like the post describing the Ansbacher results, these things eventually end up at zero.

The hare was sexier, but the tortoise still won.

 

[badnewsbear]

This thread reminds me of some discussions at the Morningstar discussion boards in 2007-2008 by the diehard fans of dividend stocks. There was repeated discussion of a fund, ADVDX, and whether the fund could continue its outsized distributions indefinitely.

When something has 200 posts, it's because people want to believe it, but at some level, they know it's not true. Take a look at a chart of ADVDX.

Anyone can make a ton of money selling naked strangles. It works, till it doesn't. Like the post describing the Ansbacher results, these things eventually end up at zero.

The hare was sexier, but the tortoise still won.

Ditto. The tortoise always wins.

 

[darwin666]

Thats what "they" say...evidently she didn't listen to "they"

The part of the interveiw I caught where they did ask her abt the flash crash she said she got hurt but I think she just kept rolling out which is always a bit easier than trying to roll a spread.

did she roll the spread or roll over the floor... not sure... flash crash wud have 100% liquidated her positions.since she was holding naked puts.

 

[bfis108137]

I keep seeing all kinds of misinformation so here will clear some things up hopefully but I still don't know if I believe her.

She is selling puts on down moves and calls on up moves so she will by default end up further otm since the vol should go up and she will not have to absorb the move she is trading on.

She doesn't wait to expiration if she can avoid it. She doesn't say when she closes positions out but it's clear that she tries to avoid waiting to expiration.

She will adjust positions at 30 delta. In theory this should help with a lot of her gamma risk.

2008-The vol was very high at this time so I think most people that were this far out would have been ok. I don't know how to get options data from that far back though.

2010-She stated that she was scared and they rolled all positions to far in the future. If I am not mistaken it was 6 months out.

 

[darwin666]

I keep seeing all kinds of misinformation so here will clear some things up hopefully but I still don't know if I believe her.

She is selling puts on down moves and calls on up moves so she will by default end up further otm since the vol should go up and she will not have to absorb the move she is trading on.

-------
it seems like a no brainer.. sell puts on down moves.. and calls on up moves.
Soooo simple. eh..??.ha ha... but the devil is in the details...
i bet you- for 99% of folks who have tried this.( i am doing this on and off . from the last 6 years)..
it is far more complicated than it seems..... position /size/ risk mgt.. and you will be the weakest link in this all.. AHA!

 

[Xenomorph]

I think the whole story is a fraud. Any thoughts?

I am also sick of TastyTrade trotting out this woman without providing verified, audited returns. Many successful fund managers are happy to provide audited returns to attract more client money. 20% performance fee on 5 billion dollars is a heck of a lot more than 20% performance fee on 100 million.

Some 'take aways' from TastyTrade videos...

1. Tom Sosnoff appears to have made most of his money in software development (by being part of a team who developed and sold ThinkorSwim to Ameritrade). I have not found any verification that he was ever a star trader. He was a market maker.

2. Tom is now trying to make money from his video blog pushing his new options trading software program 'Dough' which connects to Ameritrade and obviously earns fees whenever a trade is placed through Dough.

3. Tom is constantly pushing trading options and trading more often (i.e. 'managing positions').

4. Nearly all of the traders Tom interviews provide no audited results and many sell their own 'advisory services'.

5. I can find nowhere that 'Karen the supertrader' has been interviewed other than TastyTrade. Her story, if true, is so remarkable it stands to reason she would have been invited to appear on several TV shows by now.

I hesitate to call anyone a fraud, but these people could easily provide audited results and they have failed to do so. When it comes to trading claims you are guilty until proven innocent.

 

[darwin666]

I am also sick of TastyTrade trotting out this woman without providing verified, audited returns. Many successful fund managers are happy to provide audited returns to attract more client money. 20% performance fee on 5 billion dollars is a heck of a lot more than 20% performance fee on 100 million.

Some 'take aways' from TastyTrade videos...

1. Tom Sosnoff appears to have made most of his money in software development (by being part of a team who developed and sold ThinkorSwim to Ameritrade). I have not found any verification that he was ever a star trader. He was a market maker.

2. Tom is now trying to make money from his video blog pushing his new options trading software program 'Dough' which connects to Ameritrade and obviously earns fees whenever a trade is placed through Dough.

3. Tom is constantly pushing trading options and trading more often (i.e. 'managing positions').

4. Nearly all of the traders Tom interviews provide no audited results and many sell their own 'advisory services'.

I hesitate to call anyone a fraud, but these people could easily provide audited results and they have failed to do so. When it comes to trading claims you are guilty until proven innocent.

+1 NICE RECAP... u can save folks a lot of time as u have summarized what this sosnoff character is upto.
just pandering to his self ego.. he is a ONE TRICK pony.. pretty much u summarized it.

also. as they SAY... TALK is CHEAP... without AUDITED results.. who cares...

 

[Xenomorph]

+1 NICE RECAP

Thanks man.