Karen the "Supertrader"
- Thread starter drmark27
- Start date
This is pretty easy if all you're doing is selling premium in a docile market, like the one we've had this past year.
I don't know if next year will be any different, but some year will. I have a suspicion that one of two things will be true: either Karen will be retired and on her yacht in the Med, or she'll be in it and lose because, unlike this year, the market won't bounce back after it's been down. And volatility, which is her real enemy, will stay up all year.
Maybe not next year, but some year. She's betting on being done before that happens. Maybe she'll get lucky. But one thing you can bet on: this isn't something you want to be doing with the idea that you can do the same. Not gonna happen.
'Fortune brings in some ships that are not steered'
Cymbeline 4:3
Billy Shakespeare
Me thinks a simple VAMI chart would explain much. Fund A starts with $500,000 makes $500,000 so its 100%, next period $5mm comes in, fund goes down 10%.
So no net money has been made and we're at $5.5mm paid in no net earnings, returns ave however is now 49%.
From a partnership accounting standpoint, setting aside layering of gains and losses, the first set of investors is at 1,800 VAMI and the second group is 900
She is no doubt dealing with accredited investors, yet I doubt they are sophisticated enough to weigh the suitability of the investment let alone understand the strategy. If snake oiling the 49% is the chosen marketing pitch, then I am afraid,
'Though this be madness, there is method in it'
Hamlet 2:2
Cymbeline 4:3
Billy Shakespeare
Me thinks a simple VAMI chart would explain much. Fund A starts with $500,000 makes $500,000 so its 100%, next period $5mm comes in, fund goes down 10%.
So no net money has been made and we're at $5.5mm paid in no net earnings, returns ave however is now 49%.
From a partnership accounting standpoint, setting aside layering of gains and losses, the first set of investors is at 1,800 VAMI and the second group is 900
She is no doubt dealing with accredited investors, yet I doubt they are sophisticated enough to weigh the suitability of the investment let alone understand the strategy. If snake oiling the 49% is the chosen marketing pitch, then I am afraid,
'Though this be madness, there is method in it'
Hamlet 2:2
Actually there is no such thing as a "super trader"
There are good traders in Good markets = big profits
But even a good trader in poor market swill lose the goal is to lose as little as possible.
Then of course there are bad traders who will neve rmake profits in any market. 95%+ of trader are there.
Good luck
There are good traders in Good markets = big profits
But even a good trader in poor market swill lose the goal is to lose as little as possible.
Then of course there are bad traders who will neve rmake profits in any market. 95%+ of trader are there.
Good luck
you wouldn't really know until it happens, at 5% that means you should be able to go with it for on average 20 years before blowing up. problem is that could happen in year 1 or 20 according to the math.
impossible to tell if 5% is real odds those are the deltas she's trading and that is the approximate odds the market is telegraphing.
you make money if the market overprices volatility and you are short it.
or you make if it underprices it and go long it.
impossible to tell if 5% is real odds those are the deltas she's trading and that is the approximate odds the market is telegraphing.
you make money if the market overprices volatility and you are short it.
or you make if it underprices it and go long it.