Karen the "Supertrader"

Quote from jeffalvinson:

DrMark,

I beg to differ with you on the subject of market ignorance.

I believe one of the biggest problems in trading is "too much":
There is too much information out there.
There is too many trading systems to choose from.
There is too many methodologies of trading.
There is to many theories for every trading concept.
There is too many indicators and gadgets.
There is too many supposed Guru's who have the answer.

...

Anyone could make consistent money in the market year after year and only know one thing.....one method....one trade system.
They could be totally ignorant and naive to the market, but if
they knew just "one proven thing" they learned from someone with significant knowledge and proven history, they could succeed.


Jeff

I think you make some solid points, Jeff. Simplicity may be the key (although I would question what happens when the system stops working, as systems are sometimes known to do). Personally, "analysis paralysis" has been one of my biggest struggles as a trader.

Another other side of the coin, however, has to do with all the scammers (a la "American Greed" on CNBC, which I keep citing). In _Search Engine Optimization for Dummies_, Peter Kent writes something to this effect near the end of the 5th edition: "over 80% of the SEO industry is fraud. There, I said it." Same goes for the financial industry: advisors, newsletters, educational services, and fund managers. You almost do need to be educated rather than ignorant to navigate this minefield if only to determine what is likely truth and what is likely scam.

I would even go one step further and claim this to be a matter of critical thinking. Educated people tend to think critically before accepting new information more than ignorant, uneducated individuals do. Many of the scams out there succeed not because of their overwhelming brilliance but rather because their victims develop a trust (this plays into marketing and psychology) and literally never think to critically analyze the premises.
 
Quote from jeffalvinson:

I have watched both videos about a half dozen times.
Here's what I got out of it:

...


She initially starts off 50% invested in her account, but if things get in trouble she will use 70-80% of her account to make things whole.
To me, this could all be true, who knows for sure, but I would
have to say that this is a scary ass way to trade with a $195mm
account.
I don't see sound money management and I don't believe she's been tested enough with a severe downturn.

As far as being tested by fire goes, the video only talks about the flash crash in 2010 with the Dow suddenly dropped 1,000 points. This leads me to believe that her current trade method
may not have been in effect in 2008-2009 (SPX 666)...

Jeff

Back on p.1 of this thread, Pekelo recounted her claim to have made 50% in 2008. How does that sound?
 
Quote from jeffalvinson:

riskaddict,

She has 5 traders watching things all the time on the SPX,
NDX & RUT (although she said the SPX is her bread and butter)
and they are all friends, so she may not need you...ha...ha.

On the video she claims only 1 losing month in all of 2011 and 2012 to date.
That losing month in 2011 was August, where she lost -4.5%
of account value, "but" 2011 finished up the year at +53% net.
She also said she up +30% net through the end of the third quarter in 2012.

My questions are: what about 2008-2009 (-52% SPX decline from June 30, 2008 = 1404 to March 2009 = 666)?, or didn't she apply these strategies that short amount of time ago?
"How in the hell could a naked put seller of the SPX survive a
-52% decline over a 9 month period of time?"

Enquiring minds want to know,

Jeff

Do the return calculations seem legit? If she starts out with 50% allocation and only increases when she starts considering Mexico as a lifetime getaway, then can she really make 30% on the whole account over a 9-month period? If she survived 2008 then could she truly have started with a 50% allocation? To roll down and out, wouldn't she have to do more than just double the size to "make things whole?" If she flipped to the call side then how did she fare the week of March 10, 2009, with two 2+ SD moves to the upside and the ensuing V-bottom? She could have been lucky, to be sure, but I've backtested other market periods where this strategy (in the systemic fashion that I applied it, at least) would have blown up.

As I posted earlier, I found there to be many details missing--enough so that I question whether we have any idea what the "strategy" is (or if there is one, or if the story is real--hence my reason for starting this thread). If it's a matter of luck then passing it off as a simple strategy replicable by any ol' average jane trader is quite misleading.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Speaking of recognition, how about my investigative journalism achievement? Since I like a good challenge, I thought, there is no way I can't figure out who she is using the info provided!

Sure enough, thanks to Bing and Google, I have her name, bio, where she lives, even her list of books recommended....

" Karen ...... received her bachelor’s degrees in math and Accounting"

I guess a good education doesn't hurt....

Edit: Damn the internet, there is no privacy anymore. Now I have her phone number and address too. Surf, do you want to call her for an interview?

Color me impressed! Travis Johnson (a.k.a. Stock Gumshoe) would most certainly be proud.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Actually, it is also an advertisement for her and her funds, and that is her upside. Since you can't really advertise HFs, giving an interview and describing your returns and strategy is as close to an ad as it can get. I am sure if I had 10mm and I wanted to invest it with her, I could find a way to contact her.



I thought that was pretty obvious:

PT Barnum: tasty trade and Karen's fund

suckers: subscribers to the website and investors in the fund.

By the way the website just rised its subscription from $90 a year to $90 a month...

It was rehtorical. If you don't know who the sucker in the room is, then it's you.

How could anyone possibly think this is real? She's marketing her funds without her last name? With no introduction? No firm name? Comingling client money and her own?

Tastytrade wins. They get traffic and eyeballs. Everyone here wastes their time debating this. This Tom sosneft guy is smart and I can see why he's worth millions.
 
I don't know if her returns are legit or not and don't really have a need to know or care. I do suspect however that she wasn't being totally upfront about her trading plan / system.

I don't believe someone good with numbers and probabilities just looks at the current market price and says lets trade pretending the market is 100 points less than it really is.

If your a numbers trader as she claims she is, you know the levels going into the month that have proven historically that they may be violated but have never closed above / below. I know I watch those levels.
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

She's marketing her funds without her last name? With no introduction? No firm name?

Took me 30 mins to find all those out. I guess by not mentioning those, they are in compliance with the SEC rule of not directly advertising HFs. It is actually pretty smart...

Here she is recommending a free ebook on The Option Trader's Hedge Fund:

http://blog.booksontheknob.org/2012/09/free-book-option-traders-hedge-fund-kn.html

So you guys can save 22K on a seminar... :)
 
spy since the low in 09 has been a premium sellers dream,you really only have to be afraid of puts because the up moves are slow enough that you can cover with moderate pain,does it say when she started,
 

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Quote from ammo:

spy since the low in 09 has been a premium sellers dream,you really only have to be afraid of puts because the up moves are slow enough that you can cover with moderate pain,does it say when she started,

What about those selloffs in 2010 and 2011? 2011?
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

What about those selloffs in 2010 and 2011? 2011?
aug 11 and may 10..2 out of 45 months ,any business would take those numbers..have to wonder how she was positioned in may 10 flash crash ... i didnt watch the vids but i saw the 1st time sos had her on and he prefaced it with saying that occasionally they would get a great trader at think or swim and they would sit up and take notice, so for the that reason i believe shes legit
 
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