Karen the Supertrader - TastyTrade Hybrid Experiment

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i960 said:
Gotcha, I hear what you're saying but it's not about the returns that are the issue. It's about the symmetric risk being taken on to get those returns and how the takeaway to others might be that that is a sound or safe strategy.
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Exactly, it's not that 1.85% isn't good enough, it's that the risk he is taking to achieve that 1.85% far exceeds the reward. Even if Bobby had returned 18.85%, you would still see the same comments in this thread.

The TT strategy is like a ticking cherry bomb.
 
i960 said:
Gotcha, I hear what you're saying but it's not about the returns that are the issue. It's about the asymmetric risk being taken on to get those returns and how the takeaway to others might be that that is a sound or safe strategy.
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And I totally understand what you are saying as well. The strategy at its core is highly risky, and especially so for the return generated. I don't even care about his money return to begin with though. All I care about is the fact that anyone can say anything to sound smart and this really means nothing when it comes to taking actual trades.
 
Gotcha said:
the argument can be made that Bobby is doing much better than many funds that are negative for the year. He probably sits right in the middle of the pack with his 1.85% return.
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Sure if we lower the standard to below making money, Bobby is flying! The general, golden standard though is the market and a simple buy and hold. Making it apples to apples, I bet the other Yahoo boys made way more than 2% this year. Actually, I am now curious where they are at? Bobby, would you mind sharing?

Edit: The Yahoo group is quiet these days, but I have found this from Tom on July 1st:

" At the close of the second quarter I am up 21%."

That is freaking excellent, beating the market and Bobby by a wide margin...

I will quote his full post:

"The second quarter of 2017 has come to a close. My core position is still 5% pITM calls and puts and I am still managing them at around 50% profit.

I am using short DTE option trades to adjust my Delta. It is not as dynamic as using futures but is still somewhat dynamic.

I have taken a total of 59 /ES trades with 46 of them being profitable. Anticipating a trade on /ES takes longer to set up but it seems to provide a larger profit. I am ending up with fewer trades, a smaller winning percentage, but larger overall profits when I do win. This seems like a reasonable trade off.

On the options side I am about 80% profitable and that includes my hedge positions. I expect to lose money on my hedges but have been surprised at how often I actually make money on the hedges.

Volatility hedging is an interesting study. I have observed my Theta/Vega ratio increase from around 0.2 without hedging to sometimes as high as 1.5 with hedging. This is very much a work in progress and I am still trying to adjust to various portfolio and market conditions.

My forecasting is also a work in progress. I am only able to forecast within about 1% on SPX looking 1 week and 1 month out. With /CL I am only within about 3%. Oil is more volatile than SPX and that makes it harder to forecast. I continue to forecast because it forces me to look forward to anticipate the probable path of price. I find that helps me set up higher probable trades that result in increased profits.

My goal was to increase my Net Liq by 30% in 2017. At the close of the second quarter I am up 21%. I am on track for reaching my goal.

Tom"
 
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lawrence-lugar said:
That story was kind of obvious Something was amiss,
You can't generate explosive exponential growth by selling options
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I thought you could do that with leverage and managed your risk carefully?

Can you give me some suggestions on if I use Bobby's method how can I improve: How to reduce risks and improve returns.
 
ironchef said:
I thought you could do that with leverage and managed your risk carefully?

Can you give me some suggestions on if I use Bobby's method how can I improve: How to reduce risks and improve returns.
More...

You are severely limited on your growth potential if you are an options seller...you are simply collecting that small insurance premium, and you have to have the funds in your acct or hold that security...just in case you have to payout.

You need capital reserves to be an options seller, or insurance company, or bank.
Whereas an options buyer, you can devote 100% of your acct to a trade. Hence, the explosive return potential.

Being an insurance company is a very slow, and steady, business. You won't experience explosive, exponential growth doing that.
It's like the banking business...it's very carefully slow and calculated and conservative.

Trade nearer term options, as close to expiration as possible. they're much more volatile.
It's hard to try to catch a loose balloon from a mile away. it's easier in a room.

.It's hard to give trading advice. o_O. It's rather highly subjective and somewhat ambiguous.

All I can say is learn to predict and/or manage the future. -- Hone your crystal ball. and your mindset.
Try to put the trading battlefield in your favor. You don't enter a war hastily, or randomly.

A fool and his money are soon parted.
Casinos know this. Brokerage Trading companies know this. Gurus knows this. Wall St knows this.

The blind leading the blind,
Karen is a false Prophet. maybe even Tastytrade too -- and Sweet and Sour Bobby.

KISS: keep it simple Stupid. -- don't attempt to trade everything under the sun...just be a Master of One.
Assuming that 'one' is highly liquid.

Mazal tov,
 
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lawrence-lugar said:
You are severely limited on your growth potential if you are an options seller...you are simply collecting that small insurance premium, and you have to have the funds in your acct or hold that security...just in case you have to payout.

You need capital reserves to be an options seller, or insurance company, or bank.
Whereas an options buyer, you can devote 100% of your acct to a trade. Hence, the explosive return potential.

Being an insurance company is a very slow, and steady, business. You won't experience explosive, exponential growth doing that.
It's like the banking business...it's very carefully slow and calculated and conservative.

Trade nearer term options, as close to expiration as possible. they're much more volatile.
It's hard to try to catch a loose balloon from a mile away. it's easier in a room.

.It's hard to give trading advice. o_O. It's rather highly subjective and somewhat ambiguous.

All I can say is learn to predict and/or manage the future. -- Hone your crystal ball. and your mindset.
Try to put the trading battlefield in your favor. You don't enter a war hastily, or randomly.

A fool and his money are soon parted.
Casinos know this. Brokerage Trading companies know this. Gurus knows this. Wall St knows this.

The blind leading the blind,
Karen is a false Prophet. maybe even Tastytrade too -- and Sweet and Sour Bobby.

KISS: keep it simple Stupid. -- don't attempt to trade everything under the sun...just be a Master of One.
Assuming that 'one' is highly liquid.

Mazal tov,
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Hey Lugie and the rest of you paper traders, will y'all please keep bashing me? My account is doing great lately!
 
Macca1 said:
Exactly, it's not that 1.85% isn't good enough, it's that the risk he is taking to achieve that 1.85% far exceeds the reward. Even if Bobby had returned 18.85%, you would still see the same comments in this thread.

The TT strategy is like a ticking cherry bomb.
More...

Most people don't even grasp the concept on quantifying risk. They're just picking up nickels hoping a bus doesn't hit them.
 
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