Karen the Supertrader - TastyTrade Hybrid Experiment

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bogey20 said:
Well looks like your TOS paper account is giving you unrealistic prices. Check out the charts below. The first chart is 15 min and it is the bid-ask spread on those options on Nov 18 day and night session. You see the normal spread there plus the spikes which are the extreme spread widening that happens on futures options quite often every day. During moments like this you have 10 point bid-ask spread. The second chart is 1 min zoom. So, the normal prices that would be filled on Nov 18 were between $10.50 and $15.50, which is what's to be expected considering ES fluctuation on Nov 18. You would never get filled with your limit order at $5, because of the extreme spread widening only the bid was at $5. Just because the bid is at $5 does not mean you get filled because the ask is maybe 10 points higher, around $15. So, if the TOS is reporting a closed trade just because the bid is there, well it's an impossible fill in real life. I hope I make my explanation clear here.

The same problem with your trade #189
The same problem with your trade #191
The same problem with some random trade I checked you took in Oct and who knows how many more.

Bobby don't get me wrong I like your experiment, I test strategies all the time but the fills have to be realistic. I don't have the time to check all your trades and fills but I suspect there may be many impossible fills on your exits.

View attachment 168328 View attachment 168329
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So it turns out that Bobby's performance was all a lie (whether he intentionally knew it or not).

What's the lesson here for everyone else (since I am on ignore with him)?
If your pnl doesn't approximate what you think it should given how the market is performing, you should investigate why. I asked him how he made money in September when the market was down 2% and vols were bid. He threatened to beat me up instead of understanding that a small short delta wouldn't offset losses in short gamma and short vega. If he had studied it he might have learned something.

All (good) vol traders do this analysis and anyone who wants to trade volatility should be able to get to a level where they can intuitively understand if their book is performing the way it should.
 
newwurldmn said:
So it turns out that Bobby's performance was all a lie (whether he intentionally knew it or not).

What's the lesson here for everyone else (since I am on ignore with him)?
If your pnl doesn't approximate what you think it should given how the market is performing, you should investigate why. I asked him how he made money in September when the market was down 2% and vols were bid. He threatened to beat me up instead of understanding that a small short delta wouldn't offset losses in short gamma and short vega. If he had studied it he might have learned something.

All (good) vol traders do this analysis and anyone who wants to trade volatility should be able to get to a level where they can intuitively understand if their book is performing the way it should.
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Not a lie at all. You just don't get it. The strategy has performed very well. Sure there have been a few bad fills, but I have reported everything as it happened.

Happy trading!

Bobby
 
Sweet Bobby said:
Not a lie at all. You just don't get it. The strategy has performed very well. Sure there have been a few bad fills, but I have reported everything as it happened.

Happy trading!

Bobby
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Oh. I'm not on ignore.

I suspect most of your fills are unrealistic.

Well your second to last trade: you sold on 11/18 at 10.5 and bought it back the same day at 3.5ish. There were 4 moments after 10.5 was a realistic fill where the bid disappeared and a $2.5 bid was shown and you got magically filled. So you made like $7/share roundtripping the same contract on the same day while the SPX stayed in like a 5 point range.

But maybe I don't get it.
 
newwurldmn said:
Oh. I'm not on ignore.

I suspect most of your fills are unrealistic.

Well your second to last trade: you sold on 11/18 at 10.5 and bought it back the same day at 3.5ish. There were 4 moments after 10.5 was a realistic fill where the bid disappeared and a $2.5 bid was shown and you got magically filled. So you made like $7/share roundtripping the same contract on the same day while the SPX stayed in like a 5 point range.

But maybe I don't get it.
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You're right. The strategy doesn't work. Out of curiosity, why would you even be following this thread? It seems like a waste of resources for an enlightened soul like you.
 
Sweet Bobby said:
You're right. The strategy doesn't work. Out of curiosity, why would you even be following this thread? It seems like a waste of resources for an enlightened soul like you.
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Because
1. I do believe short vol strategies do work if you know how to price vol properly
2. You seemed to be doing this journal with integrity and genuinely interested in learning
3. I like to help people with their options understanding.

I was defending you until you dismissed my question that September and started getting smug.

And the crack addiction that is elitetrader is probably a waste of resources for me and many others - but that's how addictions work.
 
newwurldmn said:
Because
1. I do believe short vol strategies do work if you know how to price vol properly
2. You seemed to be doing this journal with integrity and genuinely interested in learning
3. I like to help people with their options understanding.

I was defending you until you dismissed my question that September and started getting smug.

And the crack addiction that is elitetrader is probably a waste of resources for me and many others - but that's how addictions work.
More...
You called me a liar. I have been open about everything. I post every trade and have lied about nothing.
 
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