I don't understand why some people go way out of their way to make a point that t/a works.
please just shut up and lets not dilute the edge.
It's a zero sum game and divulging what works and what does not is going to hurt you eventually.
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Just show me one mechanical technical analysis that has been profitably backtested?
- Thread starter crgarcia
- Start date
I don't understand why some people go way out of their way to make a point that t/a works.
please just shut up and lets not dilute the edge.
It's a zero sum game and divulging what works and what does not is going to hurt you eventually.
Quote from ronblack:
Hi Jerry,
Do you know of a program that can do this as part of the back-testing analysis?
By SOM did you mean "self-organizing map"? I have tried something along these lines using NN before but it did not work very well.
Best wishes for the Holiday Season!
Ron
Ron,
Yes, SOM is Self Organizing Map, a kind of non-linear clustering.
It somethmes called Kohonen network. See: http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Kohonen_network
Most commercial grade data mining packages include SOMs. If I recall S-Plus and JMP do. RapidMiner, which is free open source, does.
What software application are you using?
Much of the stuff marekted to traders like NeuroShell and BioComp are pretty bad at creating profitable trading systems.
What kind of pre-processing and feature idnetification are you using for you NN? Many bad NNs are the result of errors in NN design or faulty pre-processing.
Jerry
Quote from arealpissedgoy:
I don't understand why some people go way out of their way to make a point that t/a works.
please just shut up and lets not dilute the edge.
It's a zero sum game and divulging what works and what does not is going to hurt you eventually.
It's a double edged sword.
Sharing information creates the opportunity to develop new ideas and methods, as is done in academic circles. Nobody is going to share all details and methods of something that actually works in real life. There are folks on some other ET threads who appear to be doing this, but I suspect they are mostly delusional, have other motives or just want attention.
To your point, the other side is that if enough people used the same system it would no longer work. However that would likley need a lot of folks using exactly the same system in the same way at the same time in the same market. That isn't likely with human nature being what it is.
Jerry
Quote from Goalgetter:
Sure...I have been using this daily swing system for many years:
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too good to be believable - possibly.
Apart from this - basically a wonderful thread but too few details.
However, some wonderful inconspicuous self-portrayals. lol
Is it so hard to believe that some of us are actually successful at implementing trading systems? Just because you don't posses the know-how, does not mean that others are also incapable. Face the reality; not everyone on this forums are losers. Portray that.
Quote from Tight Face:
Is it so hard to believe that some of us are actually successful at implementing trading systems? Just because you don't posses the know-how, does not mean that others are also incapable. Face the reality; not everyone on this forums are losers. Portray that.
It's usually the ones who have failed at it and gone back to watching cute colored lines on a trading screen all day that have a chip on their shoulder.
Quote from IronFist:
97% winning trades! Damn!!!!
Have your real life results matched those backtested results?
TS equity curve. Nice curve fit. I can plug a macd, sma, and stochk together, and wait two weeks for all of the functional values to be found on 1 security. That's the kind of stuff that it takes.
Quote from bwolinsky:
TS equity curve. Nice curve fit. I can plug a macd, sma, and stochk together, and wait two weeks for all of the functional values to be found on 1 security. That's the kind of stuff that it takes.
Good luck with that.....
I use no technical analysis of price in the determination of the entries and exits in my models.
Here are some quotes to think about:
"There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again,
and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion that always gets
in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure."
--Jesse Livermore
"The financial markets are naturally set up to take advantage of and prey upon human nature. As a result, markets
initiate major intraday and swing moves with as few traders participating as possible. A trader who does not understand
how this works is destined to lose money."
--John Carter, Financial Trader
"Fear and greed drive markets. That's why to succeed as a trader, you must learn to respect the two principal driving forces
of price. To win consistently, you must put the odds in your favor by understanding when sentiment reaches an extreme at
either end of the scale and take advantage of the markets at that time."
--Boris Schlossberg, author of Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game
probably, it never intended for the wide spectrum of instruments, because after trying it on DIA, for example, we got the foll'g result:
Testing Results
--------------
1) SuperBands, with Linear Regression Analysis
1500 Bars of Price Data were used in testing DIA.
Loss $-928.74
Total Trades 19
2) Buy and Hold Results
Loss $-171.88
Testing Results
--------------
1) SuperBands, with Linear Regression Analysis
1500 Bars of Price Data were used in testing DIA.
Loss $-928.74
Total Trades 19
2) Buy and Hold Results
Loss $-171.88
Quote from bwolinsky:
The most profitable chartscript ever written was designed by me over the last 5 years. It's alias is called SuperBands, seen here:
http://wl4.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/getpage?page=Top25APR.htm
It has been at the top of the most profitable list for years, and will continue to do so. The problem? It's a technical challenge more than a conceptual challenge. Jack Hershey's Methods, SPM? None of these systems are shit compared to SuperBands with LinearRegression Analysis.
Quote from sogodo:
probably, it never intended for the wide spectrum of instruments, because after trying it on DIA, for example, we got the foll'g result:
Testing Results
--------------
1) SuperBands, with Linear Regression Analysis
1500 Bars of Price Data were used in testing DIA.
Loss $-928.74
Total Trades 19
2) Buy and Hold Results
Loss $-171.88
So are we talking apples and oranges here or is there any objective reality to SuperBands?
One party says it profitable while test resutls posted indicate otherwise.