He does stand out in a chorus of broken clocks on the other side of the coin.
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Just remember 2008, everything was fine
- Thread starter NY_HOOD
- Start date
He does stand out in a chorus of broken clocks on the other side of the coin.
In Peter Schiffe’s case wasn’t he going on about the impending crash years before. What’s the trade in that case. Go short for 2 years, avoid the market for two years?
I recently watched him on the Joe Rogan podcast and he has made some good points on Fed policy and how they re-inflated the 2008 bubble but what’s the trade? I put his commentary right up there with stock picking. Entering a trade is easy, exiting is the hard part.
I recently watched him on the Joe Rogan podcast and he has made some good points on Fed policy and how they re-inflated the 2008 bubble but what’s the trade? I put his commentary right up there with stock picking. Entering a trade is easy, exiting is the hard part.
2001 was mild because it was really localized to dotcom and the after effects of 9/11 and then accounting scandals which were really just a financial issue.
In the Great Recession, Main Street got hit in 2009. I saw a slide at a chemical industry conference that showed production was down 9percent in early 2009. 9percent for one of the largest manufacturing industries in America! As a derivatives trader sitting in a large bank (not sure if our firm would survive) this was lost on my until several years later. The world actually stopped spinning.
The first is called the dotcom bust and the second is called the Great Recession for a reason.
In 2008 we initially thought the housing market was in deep trouble but the impacts to the broader economy was contained. Didn't realize that the housing markets were bigger than the dotcom
How about Jim Rogers?
Jim Rogers got the 2008 crisis right.
Lot of people here considering X value in index thinking it means anything. The only thing that matters is relative.
1) What is it relative to ATH
2) What is it relative to the last decade
3) What it is relative to the last few months
When people panic about 2 & 3, that's when going long looks interesting. Right now, main street isn't bothered about the stock market except they're mad they got lured in again.
1) What is it relative to ATH
2) What is it relative to the last decade
3) What it is relative to the last few months
When people panic about 2 & 3, that's when going long looks interesting. Right now, main street isn't bothered about the stock market except they're mad they got lured in again.
Another guy I haven't seen or heard in years is Bill Fleckenstein. I remember him and his mullet back in the 90's forecasting bearish outcomes.
Yeah, another guy who's forecasted 25 of the last 3 recessions. Bearish newsletter guys and bearish traders here use a lot of confirmation bias. If you try to correlate this with 2007-8 objectively, there aren't that many similarities.
Recession Watch
Economists still overwhelmingly expect a recession to hit by the end of 2021. According to a National Association for Business Economics survey, 10% think it will come this year, 42% next year and 25% see it coming in 2021. Most respondents reckon the Fed will keep raising interest rates this year. Bloomberg
Economists still overwhelmingly expect a recession to hit by the end of 2021. According to a National Association for Business Economics survey, 10% think it will come this year, 42% next year and 25% see it coming in 2021. Most respondents reckon the Fed will keep raising interest rates this year. Bloomberg
Recession Watch
Economists still overwhelmingly expect a recession to hit by the end of 2021. According to a National Association for Business Economics survey, 10% think it will come this year, 42% next year and 25% see it coming in 2021. Most respondents reckon the Fed will keep raising interest rates this year. Bloomberg
Well then I'm going to definitely go long.