Just remember 2008, everything was fine

Citigroup in 2007 and the CEO ...Prinze? were not doing too well writing down 700 millions in bad mortgage loans. names and numbers are from memory so... August? 2007 quants washed out....credit markets ...reverse repo markets...libor strained/flashed warnings.
The fed and stock indices and were in denial but were not happy-go-lucky .

The expected one year of fiscal stimulus from tax cut is done and there is less global monetary stimulus. c banks are quiet and its time for Schumer to tell them to "get busy" again. Trump may scapegoat and fire the fed hair when Abby J. Cohen calls a bottom . surreal.

Where are euro and Japan 10 year yields? -neg? How do you ease into that? Sorry dont follow the stuff.
 
In the last two recessions (2001-2002, late 2007-2008), I remembered there were lot of confusions about whether US was in a recession, as there were lots of conflicting news. Often the GDB showed positive growths, only to be revised down several months later, first to slightly positive, then to negative. And sometimes the news media was wondering why the markets were falling even though the fundamental seemed OK.
 
curiousGeorge8 said:
In the last two recessions (2001-2002, late 2007-2008), I remembered there were lot of confusions about whether US was in a recession, as there were lots of conflicting news. Often the GDB showed positive growths, only to be revised down several months later, first to slightly positive, then to negative. And sometimes the news media was wondering why the markets were falling even though the fundamental seemed OK.
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2001 was mild because it was really localized to dotcom and the after effects of 9/11 and then accounting scandals which were really just a financial issue.

In the Great Recession, Main Street got hit in 2009. I saw a slide at a chemical industry conference that showed production was down 9percent in early 2009. 9percent for one of the largest manufacturing industries in America! As a derivatives trader sitting in a large bank (not sure if our firm would survive) this was lost on my until several years later. The world actually stopped spinning.

The first is called the dotcom bust and the second is called the Great Recession for a reason.
 
guru said:
It's not like everyone sees only news about strong & healthy economy and stock market.
Not a day goes by that we don't see news, videos and podcasts about disaster in the making.
While last week people here were saying that news channels are fear mongering, and some were laughing at CNN. Just everyday chatter, since 2008 probably.
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Well said. You've had many people forecasting doom and gloom since the bull market began...mostly these dumb ass gold bugs. 10 years later, these guys are going to act as if they had it right all along and that anyone who thought that the economy was fine had it wrong.

While I'm not a doom and gloomer, I don't think that the economy has been going in the right direction, either.
 
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